农业技术进步下的农业用水反弹效应及特征——基于长江中下游粮食主产区省级面板数据

Rebound Effect and Characteristics of Agricultural Water Under Agricultural Technological Progress:Based on Provincial Panel Data of the Main Grain Producing Areas in the Lower Yangtze Region

基于2007-2019年长江中下游粮食主产区5省面板数据,测算了农业技术进步下的农业用水反弹效应,并分析了其存在的特征。研究表明:(1)2007-2019年间农业技术进步率均为正值,省份之间存在差异,年份之间整体波动幅度不大。(2)长江中下游粮食主产区农业用水普遍存在反弹效应,最高达483%,且地区间存在差异。江苏、湖北和湖南的农业用水反弹效应平均值分别为53%、71%和91%。安徽省和江西省平均值为负。(3)在农业技术进步率波动的影响下,各省农业用水反弹效应不同年份之间存在变化,无明显的增减趋势。只有少数年份不存在反弹效应,大部分年份都存在反弹效应,部分年份出现了“回火效应”。最后,根据各省不同情况,考虑农业用水反弹效应,制定相关的农业节水政策。

Based on the panel data of 5 provinces in the main grain producing areas in the Lower Yangtze Region from 2007 to 2019, this paper calculated the rebound effect of agricultural water under agricultural technological progress, and analyzed its existing characteristics.The results showed that:(1)The agricultural technology progress rate from 2007 to 2019 was positive, there were differences among provinces,and the overall fluctuation range between years was small.(2) Agricultural water in the main grain producing areas in the Lower Yangtze Region generally had a rebound effect, up to 483%, and there were differences among regions. The average rebound effects of agricultural water in Jiangsu, Hubei and Hunan were 53%, 71% and 91% respectively. The average rebound effect of agricultural water of Anhui Province and Jiangxi Province was negative.(3)Under the influence of the fluctuation of agricultural technology progress rate, the rebound effect of agricultural water in various provinces varied from year to year, and there was no obvious increase or decrease trend. Only a few years had no rebound effect, most years had rebound effect, and some years had "tempering effect". Finally, according to the different conditions of each province, considering the rebound effect of agricultural water, relevant agricultural water-saving policies were formulated.