河北省土地利用类型动态变化及驱动机制研究

Study on dynamic change and driving mechanism of land use types in Hebei province

为揭示河北省近40年来土地利用类型动态变化的时空特征,并探讨其驱动机制,基于1990—2018年河北省是四期土地利用数据,对河北省土地利用结构时空变化特征和转移趋势进行了分析,并通过地理探测器对各驱动因子对土地利用变化影响程度的高低以及各驱动因子之间的交互作用机制进行了探讨.结果表明:河北省土地利用类型以耕地、林地和草地为主,其次为城乡建设用地,未利用土地和水域所占面积较小.自1990—2018年,河北省耕地、草地和未利用土地面积有所下降,城乡建设用地和林地面积有所增加.自1980—2018年间,河北省各土地类型之间的转换主要集中在草地、耕地、林地和城乡建设用地之间.在驱动力方面,国民生产总值、年末总人口和人口密度等社会经济因素对河北省土地利用类型变化的解释力较高,而气温、降水和坡度等自然因素对土地利用类型变化的解释力相对较低.

Based on the land use data of Hebei province in 1990,2000,2010 and 2018,this paper analyzes the temporal and spatial change characteristics of land use structure in Hebei province,and calculates and analyzes the land transfer matrix.At the same time,based on the geographic detector model,this paper analyzes the influencing factors of land use change,and studies the interaction mechanism between the influencing factors.The results show that:The land use types in Hebei province are mainly cultivated land,forest land and grassland,followed by urban and rural construction land,and the area of unused land and water area is small.From 1990 to 2018,although the area of cultivated land,grassland and unused land in Hebei province decreased,the area of urban and rural construction land and forest land increased.From the perspective of land use type conversion in Hebei province,the conversion between various land types in Hebei province from 1980 to 2018 was mainly between grassland,cultivated land,forest land and urban and rural construction land.In terms of various factors affecting land change,socio-economic factors such as gross national product,output value of primary industry,total population at the end of the year,output value of secondary industry and population density have a higher impact on land use type change,while natural factors such as temperature,precipitation and slope have a relatively low impact on land use type change.