大国竞争转型与北约的战略调整

Renewed Great Power Competition and NATO’s Strategic Adaptation

对美欧来说,北约在冷战时期的大国竞争中,发挥了重要作用,在大战略、同盟关系、军备竞赛和危机管控方面积累了丰富经验。在后冷战时代,北约虽不以其他大国为主要对手,但其持续东扩仍然加剧了美欧与俄罗斯之间的安全困境,为新一轮欧洲大国竞争埋下伏笔。与冷战不同,21世纪的大国竞争在竞争领域上和地理范围上不仅超出传统的地缘政治和军备竞赛,而且在亚太和欧洲两个方向同时出现,北约需要转型适应。北约会继续投入和塑造欧洲安全态势,尤其是应对俄乌冲突带来的机遇和挑战,并有限参与美国对华战略竞争,还要与欧洲的战略自主进行协调。中国需要准确把握和妥善应对北约参与新一轮大国竞争的影响。

During the Cold War,for both the United States and its European allies,the North Atlantic Treaty Organization(NATO)played a crucial role in Europe—the primary theater of U.S.-Soviet strategic competition.As a result,NATO had gained experience in grand strategy,alliance management,arms race,and crisis management.In the post-Cold War era,NATO did not target any specific great power,but its expansion had accelerated the security dilemma between the United States, Europe,and Russia,contributing to the emergence of a new great power competition in the 21;Century.The new competition differs from the Cold-Warera confrontation because it goes beyond traditional geopolitical competition and an arms race and takes place in both Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. NATO has to adapt to the new competition. On the one hand, NATO must continue its commitment to Europe’s security order and cope with the opportunities and challenges of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict.On the other hand,NATO needs to participate partially in the United States’ strategic competition with China while coordinating with Europe’s strategic autonomy.China should assess NATO’s impact on the new strategic competition and cope with it properly.