水资源配置PPP项目运营期风险管理行为博弈分析

Game analysis of risk management behavior of water diversion PPP projects during operation period

在水资源配置PPP项目运营过程中,核心利益相关方积极的风险管理行为能够降低项目的风险发生概率。从风险管理角度,通过分析水资源配置PPP项目利益相关者的关系,构建了水资源配置PPP项目运营期风险管理过程中政府主体和社会资本方(项目公司)的行为决策演化博弈模型,运用MATLAB分析动态演化过程。结果表明:影响演化稳定行为选择策略的因素包括政府主体和社会资本方双方积极管理的成本、水污染等风险事件造成的损失与损失分配系数、可行性缺口补助和奖励。为促进水资源配置工程运营过程风险的有效管理,建议加强政府主体和社会资本方双方的风险管理能力建设,落实责任分担机制、完善监督机制、优化奖惩机制等。

The active risk management behaviors of core stakeholders in the operation process of water diversion PPP(public-private partnership) projects can reduce the probability of project risk occurrence. From the perspective of risk management, through the analysis of stakeholder relationship of water diversion PPP projects, the behavioral decision-making evolutionary game model of government subject and social capital(project company) in the risk management process of water diversion PPP projects during the operation period is constructed, and the dynamic evolution process is analyzed by MATLAB. The results show that the factors influencing the choice strategy of evolutionary stable behaviors include the cost actively managed by both the government and social capital, the loss caused by risk events such as water pollution and loss distribution coefficient, feasibility gap subsidy and reward. In order to promote effective risk management in the operation process of water diversion projects, it is suggested to strengthen the risk management capacity building of both the government and the social capital, implement the responsibility sharing mechanism, improve the supervision mechanism and optimize the reward and punishment mechanism.