中国粮食主产区农业水资源脆弱性与粮食安全时空耦合关系研究

Research on the Spatio-temporal Coupling Relationship between Agricultural Water Resources Vulnerability and Food Security in China′s Main Grain Producing Areas

构建适用于中国粮食主产区农业水资源脆弱性与粮食安全的评价指标体系,利用D-S证据理论合成主客观权重并确定综合权重,对2010—2019年粮食主产区的农业水资源脆弱性和粮食安全进行评价。采用耦合协调度模型和相对发展度模型,分析两者的耦合协调水平及耦合协调发展类型。结果表明,2010—2019年粮食主产区的农业水资源脆弱性和粮食安全呈持续改进优化的趋势,两者得分分别提高6.22%和17.22%。农业水资源脆弱性与粮食安全的耦合协调度上升5.11%,耦合协调度等级从勉强协调升至初级协调,耦合协调度呈南高北低的空间分布特征。粮食主产区耦合协调发展类型主要为低度磨合-农业水资源滞后型、高度磨合-同步发展型,农业水资源系统改进和发展滞后已成为制约粮食安全的主要障碍因素,笔者据此提出了降低农业水资源脆弱性、促进2个系统耦合发展的路径。

An evaluation index system suitable for the evaluation of agricultural water resources vulnerability and food security in China′s main grain producing areas was constructed,and the subjective and objective weights were synthesized to determine integrated weights by using D-S evidence theory,and the agricultural water resources vulnerability and food security in the main grain producing areas from 2010 to 2019 were then evaluated.Coupling coordination degree model and relative development degree model were used to analyze the coupling coordination level and the type of coupling coordination development.The results show that,during the study period,both the agricultural water resources vulnerability and food security in the main grain producing areas showed a trend of continuous improvement and optimization,and their scores increased by 6.22%and 17.22%,respectively.The degree of coupling coordination between agricultural water resources vulnerability and food security increased by 5.11%,from barely coordination to primary coordination,and presented a spatial distribution characteristic of“high in the south and low in the north”.The types of coupling coordination development of main grain producing areas were mainly low running-backward agricultural water resources and high running-synchronous development.The backward development of agricultural water resources system has become the main obstacles to food security.Therefore,proposals are put forward for the reducing of the vulnerability of agricultural water resources and improving of the coupling development of these two systems.