2016—2020年重庆市北碚区伤害早死所致疾病负担变化趋势及死亡预测

Trends of disease burden due to premature mortality and mortality prediction of injury in Beibei District of Chongqing from 2016 to 2020

目的 分析2016—2020年北碚区伤害死亡率及早死所致疾病负担变化趋势,并预测2021—2023年伤害死亡率,为开展伤害干预提供建议。方法 2016—2020年伤害死亡数据来源于“中国疾病预防控制系统死因登记报告信息系统”,采用死亡率评估伤害死亡水平,采用早逝损失生命年(YLL)评估伤害早死所致疾病负担;采用年度变化百分比(APC)分析死亡率和YLL率的趋势变化,并对APC进行t检验;采用GM(1,1)灰色模型预测死亡率。结果 2016—2020年北碚区伤害死亡率由2016年的36.38/10万上升到2020年的49.63/10万,APC为9.42%,变化趋势有统计学意义(t=5.12,P=0.014);伤害YLL率波动在10.52‰~11.91‰,2016年为10.93‰,2020年为10.52‰,呈先上升后下降,APC为0.60%,变化趋势无统计学意义(t=0.29,P=0.791);男性伤害死亡率和YLL率高于女性。伤害死亡率随年龄增长而上升,前5位伤害类型依次为意外跌落、道路交通事故、故意伤害、溺水和意外中毒,不同年龄组及不同类型的伤害之间死亡率和YLL率变化趋势存在差异。2021—2023年伤害死亡率预测值分别为56.48/10万、61.57/10万和67.12/10万。结论 北碚区伤害早死所致疾病负担虽较过去有所下降,但伤害死亡率呈上升趋势,仍需根据本地伤害的流行特征有针对性地开展防控工作。

Objective To analyze the trends on the burden of disease due to premature death caused by injury and predict the mortality from 2021 to 2023 in Beibei District,to provide the suggestion for injury intervention.Methods Data on injury deaths from 2016 to 2020 derived from the causes of death registration reporting information system.The mortality was used to assess the death of diseases,years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLL) was used to assess the burden of diseases.The annual percentage change (APC) and t test were used to analyze the changing trend of rates.GM(1,1) grey model was used to predict mortality.Results The mortality of injury in Beibei district increased from 36.38/10~5in 2016 to 49.63/10~5in 2020,the APC was 9.42%,the change trend was statistically significant (t=5.12,P=0.014).The injury YLL rate fluctuated between 10.52‰-11.91‰,it was 10.93‰in 2016 and 10.52‰in 2020,it rose first and then fell,the APC was 0.60%,the change trend was no statistically significant (t=0.29,P=0.791).Male injury mortality and YLL rate were higher than those of females.The injury mortality rate increased with age.The top five causes of injury death were accidental falls,traffic accidents,intentional injuries,drowning and accidental poisoning.There were differences in mortality and YLL rates among different age group and different types of injuries.From 2021 to 2023 injury mortality projections were 56.48/10~5、61.57/10~5and 67.12/10~5.Conclusions Although the disease burden caused by early death of injury in Beibei district has decreased compared with the past,the mortality of injury has increased.It is necessary to carry out targeted prevention and control according to the epidemiological characteristics of local injury.