汇率风险和中国产业的国际竞争

EXCHANGE RATE EXPOSURE AND INTERNATIONAL COMPETITION OF CHINA’S INDUSTRIES

在新发展格局下,现代产业发展更加注重发展和安全的平衡。本文采用2005—2018年的数据分析了中国各行业面临的汇率风险暴露和国外产业竞争。研究发现:中国有42.6%的行业面临汇率风险暴露,资源品行业受到汇率冲击的影响最为严重,可贸易品行业受益于人民币兑美元贬值,但汇率的敏感性远低于日美贸易战时期。中国有38.9%的行业面临来自美国的产业竞争,产业支持政策在一定程度上增强了中国产业的竞争力。除美国外,中国的产业竞争主要来自英国、法国等欧洲发达国家。在此基础上,讨论了后疫情时代企业国际化的困难和应对。本文的研究对于汇率风险管理和产业政策制定有重要的参考价值。

Under the new development paradigm, modern industries should pay more attention to the balance between development and safety. This paper analyzes how exchange rate fluctuation and foreign industry competition affect China’s industries using a comprehensive data from 2005 to 2018. The results show that 42.5% of China’s industries are exposed to USD-RMB risk, and the resource product industry is most affected by exchange rate shocks. The tradable goods industry has benefited from the devaluation of the RMB against the US dollar, but the importance of the exchange rate is much lower than the Japan-US trade war period(1975-1997). Similarly, 38.9% of industries face industrial competition from the United States, and industrial policy support has enhanced the competitiveness of China’s industries. In addition to the United States, China’s industries also face industrial competition from developed European countries such as the United Kingdom and France. On this basis, the difficulties and countermeasures of enterprise internationalization in the post epidemic era are discussed. The research has abundant policy applications for exchange rate risk management and industrial policy formulation.