中国女性跨省婚姻流入分布的影响因素及其空间效应

Determinants and Spatial Effects of the Distribution of Women′s Inter-provincial Marriage Inflow in China

中国跨省婚姻流入女性的空间分布格局存在明显的“东南高,西北低”的聚集性特征。根据第六次人口普查数据,对地级市层面跨省婚姻流入女性分布进行空间计量分析。研究发现:地级行政区下的跨省婚姻流入女性数量存在显著的空间相关性,且这种相关性包含来自因变量空间滞后和空间误差的影响。在此基础上用空间杜宾误差模型对各解释变量的空间效应进行估计,研究发现:流入地男性平均受教育年限、两性未婚人口数量差对跨省婚姻流入女性数量具有显著的促进作用,但未表现出空间效应;周边地区的人均可支配收入和省内外婚迁女性比对于本地的跨省婚姻流入女性数量具有负向效应;周边地区的二三产就业人口比重对本地的跨省婚姻流入女性数量具有正向效应。这些结论从空间视角拓展了以往对于跨省婚姻流入女性分布特征影响机制的解释,为我国婚姻流动迁移问题的理论研究和相关政策制定提供了有益的借鉴和参考。

The spatial distribution pattern of women’s inter-provincial marriage inflow in China shows obvious clustering characteristics of“high in the southeast and low in the northwest”.Based on the data from the sixth census, a spatial econometric analysis of the distribution of women’s inter-provincial marriage inflow at the prefecture-level city level was conducted.The study found that there is significant spatial autocorrelation in the women’s inflows of inter-provincial marriages in prefecture-level administrative regions, and this autocorrelation includes the effects of spatial lag of dependent variable and spatial errors.Then, the spatial effects of each explanatory variable were estimated using the Spatial Durbin Error Model(SDEM).It was found that: The average years of schooling for men in the inflow area and the difference in the number of unmarried populations of two sexes have a significant role in promoting the number of women inflows in marriages across provinces,but they did not show a spatial effect.The per capita disposable income and the ratio of women migrants from within the province to women migrants from outside the province in the nearby areas had a negative effect on the number of inter-provincial marriage inflows in local areas. The proportion of the employment population in the secondary and tertiary industries in the nearby areas has a positive effect on the number of inter-provincial marriage inflows in the local city. These conclusions expand the previous explanations of the mechanism of determinants on the distribution characteristics of inter-provincial marriage inflows from a spatial perspective,and provide a useful reference for the theoretical research and related policies on the problem of marriage migration in our country.