试论伊拉克周期性抗议运动的政治过程

Analysis of the Periodic Protest Movements in Iraq

2011年以来,伊拉克经历了多次大规模民众抗议运动并表现出周期性兴起和衰落特征。本文以伊拉克五轮抗议运动为研究对象,运用政治过程理论中的运动产生和运动发展衰落模型,旨在探究伊拉克抗议运动周期性爆发、衰落的原因。本文认为,伊拉克周期性抗议运动产生的主要原因归结为不断扩张的政治机会、有效的基层组织动员和民众的认知情感共识,运动产生后从发展到衰落的过程则是社会控制反应、经济社会问题、抗议组织强度、集体构建进程等四个变量共同作用的结果。受制于伊拉克战争后国外压力和国内制度实践带来的种种弊端,伊拉克政治体制进行根本性改革的可能性不大,抗议运动周期性起落过程可能将成为常态。同时也应看到,抗议运动已成为倒逼伊拉克国内改革的关键因素。

Iraq has experienced many mass protests since 2011,reflecting the characteristics of periodic rise and fall.Taking the five rounds of protests in Iraq since 2011 as the research object,this paper uses the movement generation model and movement development and decline model of political process theory,so as to explore the reasons for the periodic outbreak and decline of the protests in Iraq.This paper argues that the emergence of periodic protest movement in Iraq is based on three reasons:expanding political opportunities,effective indigenous mobilization and people’s cognitive and emotional consensus.The process from development to decline is the result of four variables:social control response,economic and social problems,protest organization intensity and collective attribution process.Constrained by the foreign pressure and various disadvantages brought by the domestic political system,a fundamental reform of Iraq’s political system is unlikely to carry out.The protest movement will inevitably enter a cyclical process of ups and downs.On the other hand,the protest movement has become a key factor in forcing Iraq’s domestic reform.