政策转型、官员产业选择偏好与区域经济增长

Policy Transformation,Officials'Preference for Industrial Choice and Regional Economic Growth

产业选择对经济增长速度和增长方式都有极其重要的影响,改革开放后的政策转型使地方官员对地方产业发展选择有很大的裁量权,而在一段时期内的干部考核以GDP为主的激励机制下,地方官员为了职务晋升,往往根据自己的偏好选择产业发展,从而对产业结构产生影响,进而影响经济增长。本文在效用分析的基础上,通过改进经典分析方法,测量地方官员的产业选择偏好,并将其代入计量模型,检验其对经济增长的影响。结果表明:(1)在政策转型后,地方官员的激励机制发生了变化,为了职务晋升,在发展高产值、高税收产业方面有强大的动力。(2)地方官员的禀赋不同,产业选择偏好有明显的异质性。(3)地方高产值、高税收产业的超常发展,带来产业结构趋同的后果,给中央政府宏观调控增加了困难。本文为政策转型、产业结构的理论研究开拓了新领域,为官员行为研究提供了新视角。

The industrial choice has an extremely important impact on the speed and mode of economic growth.Under the condition of the transformation of the policy of simplification and decentralization of administration and opening up,local officials have a great load on the choice of local industrial development.However,under the incentive mechanism dominated by GDP in the cadre assessment for a period of time,local officials often choose industrial development according to their own preferences in order to promote their positions,which has an impact on the industrial structure,thus affecting economic growth.Based on the utility analysis,this paper measures the industrial choice preference of local officials by improving the classical analysis method,and substitutes it into the econometric model to test its impact on economic growth.The results show that:1)after the policy transformation,the incentive mechanism of local officials has changed.For political promotion,there is a strong driving force in the development of high output value and high tax industries.2)Due to the different endowments of local officials,there is an obvious heterogeneity in industrial selection preferences.3)The extraordinary development of local industries with high output value and high tax revenue has brought about the convergence of industrial structure and increased difficulties for the central government's macro-control.This paper opens up a new field for the theoretical research of policy transformation and industrial structure,and provides a new perspective for the study of official behaviors.