中欧班列对中国与沿线国家双边贸易效率及潜力的影响研究

The Impact of China-Europe Freight Train on Efficiency and Potential of Bilateral Trade Between China and Countries Along the Line

中欧班列的常态化运行打通了新丝绸之路的贸易通道,已成为推进国家“一带一路”倡议的重要抓手。本文依据26个中欧班列沿线国家2001~2020年的贸易数据,建立随机前沿引力模型分析中国与沿线国家的贸易效率,并分析中欧班列对贸易效率的影响,最终结合反事实模拟,利用预期贸易增长空间和极限贸易增长空间两个测度指标,分析中欧班列产生的贸易促进效应。研究结果表明:运输距离对贸易的抑制性明显,沿线国家的2020年平均出口和进口贸易效率分别为44.37%和46.04%,出口贸易效率的增速快于进口,出口贸易效率分布离散程度远小于进口;中欧班列的开通会显著提升沿线国家的贸易效率,进一步,运输距离和运输时间的缩短均能显著提升贸易效率,对进口效率的提升程度大于出口效率;同时,运输距离的缩短会降低贸易效率的波动;根据反事实模拟结果,中欧班列开通使沿线国家的预期贸易增长空间达到16.70%~45.24%,对进口贸易的促进效应大于出口贸易。最后,基于上述结论提出了相应的政策建议。

The China-Europe Freight Train(CEFT)has opened up the trade route of the new Silk Road.It has become an important method for advancing“the Belt and Road”(B&R)initiative.Based on the trade data of 26 countries along CEFT from 2001 to 2020,we establishes a Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model(SFGM)to analyze the trade efficiency between China and countries along the line,and figure out the impact of the China Europe train on trade efficiency.Finally,combined with the counterfactual simulation,we use the counterfactual simulation to analyze the trade promotion effect of CEFT.The results show that the transportation distance has obvious inhibition on trade.The average export and import trade efficiency of countries along CEFT in 2020 are 44.37%and 46.04%.The growth rate of export trade efficiency is faster than that of import,and the dispersion of export trade efficiency distribution is far less than that of import.The opening of CEFT will significantly improve the trade efficiency.Further,the shortening of transportation distance and transportation time can significantly improve the trade efficiency,and the improvement effect of import efficiency is greater than that of export efficiency.It will also reduce the fluctuation of trade efficiency.According to the counterfactual simulation results,the opening of CFTE has made the expected trade growth space of countries along the line reach 16.7%to 45.24%,and the promotion effect on import trade is greater than that on export trade.Finally,based on the conclusions,the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward.