东北地区人口迁移影响经济增长的传导机制研究

A Study on the Transmission Mechanism of Population Migration Affecting Economic Growth in Northeast China

东北地区人口净迁出已经持续了10年之久,这使得东北劳动力结构、产业结构、城市化水平以及区域经济结构都发生了深刻的变化,导致经济增长受到抑制甚至负增长,本研究旨在探索人口迁移影响经济增长传导机制的形成及每个环节彼此之间的相互关系,基于2001~2020年东三省数据的实证研究表明人口迁移到经济增长的传导路径清晰可见,并且确已形成一个传导链条;利用好这一传导规律,引导东北迁移人口有序流动,稳定东北人口数量是扭转东北经济增长缓慢的关键抓手,是协调经济资源配置的重要手段。

〕The net out-migration of the population from the northeast has been lasted for ten years,which has brought about profound changes in the structure of the labor force,the industry,in the level of the urbanization and in the structure of regional economy,the purpose of this study is to explore how population migration affects the formation of the transmission mechanism of economic growth and the relationship between each link,the study based on the data of three northeastern provinces from 2001 to 2020 shows that the transmission path of population migration to economic growth is clear and has formed a transmission chain.It is the key to reverse the slow economic growth of northeast China and an important means to coordinate the allocation of economic resources by making good use of this transmission law to guide the orderly flow of northeast migration population and to stabilize the population of northeast China.