基于碳排放权价值的中国省域绿色贸易利益测度

Provincial green trade benefits in China based on the value of carbon emission permits

作为碳排放大国和出口强国,中国获得贸易顺差的背后是生产出口产品所带来的巨量碳排放。科学测算碳排放导致的价值损失,对“双碳”目标下的绿色发展具有重要意义。该研究通过构建嵌入式多区域投入产出表,从双边贸易层面和行业层面,分析中国30个省份进出口贸易隐含碳的现状,并利用碳排放权价值测算各省份对外贸易的环境净损失;在增加值贸易利益的基础上,进一步考察中国省域绿色贸易利益。研究表明,从双边贸易层面看,中国省域出口贸易隐含碳主要由美国和欧盟转入,进口贸易隐含碳主要向巴西、俄罗斯、印度、印度尼西亚、墨西哥和土耳其转出。对东盟贸易隐含碳占比较大的省份主要位于西南地区,对BRIIMT贸易隐含碳占比较大的省份主要位于北部地区,对日韩贸易隐含碳占比较大的省份主要位于东部地区。从行业层面看,出口贸易隐含碳集中在制造业和电热生产供应业,占比之和超过70%,且各省份的行业结构具有一定差异性。进口贸易隐含碳集中在电热生产供应业和运输业,占比之和约63%。引入碳排放权价值后,中国30省份的绿色贸易利益相比于增加值贸易利益减少0.94%。作为隐含碳净出口国,中国有28个省份在对外贸易中承担环境净损失。其中新疆和甘肃环境净损失的比重最高,分别为69.29%和57.43%。天津、吉林等7个省份在损失增加值贸易利益的同时,还承担着净出口贸易隐含碳带来的环境污染。针对结论,该研究提出大力发展清洁能源、省域间差异化减排、优化对外贸易结构的建议。

As a major carbon emitter and a strong exporter,China enjoys a great trade surplus,but the production of exports hascaused a large amount of carbon emissions.Scientific calculation of the value loss caused by carbon emissions is of great significance togreen development under the ‘dual carbon’ goals.This study built an embedded multi-regional input-output table to analyze the cur-rent status of the import and export trade-embodied carbon emissions of China’s 30 provinces at the bilateral trade level and industrylevel,and used the value of carbon emission permits to measure the net environmental losses of each province in foreign trade.Based onthe benefits of trade in value-added,this study further examined the green trade benefits of China’s provinces.The results showed thatfrom the perspective of bilateral trade,the export trade embodied carbon of China’s provinces was mainly transferred from the UnitedStates and the European Union,and the import trade embodied carbon was mainly transferred to Brazil,Russia,India,Indonesia,Mexi-co,and Turkey(BRIIMT).The provinces with a relatively large embodied carbon in trade with ASEAN were mainly located in the south-west region.The provinces with a relatively large embodied carbon in trade with BRIIMT were mainly located in the northern region,and the provinces with a relatively large embodied carbon in trade with Japan and South Korea were mainly located in the eastern re-gion.From the perspective of industry,the export trade embodied carbon was concentrated in the manufacturing industry and the pro-duction and supply industries of electricity and heat,accounting for more than 70% of the total,and the industrial structure of eachprovince had certain differences.The import trade embodied carbon was concentrated in the production and supply industries of elec-tricity and heat and the transportation industry,accounting for about 63% of the total.After introducing the value of carbon emissionpermits,the green trade benefits of 30 provinces in China were reduced by 0.94% compared to the benefits of trade in value-added.Asa net exporter of embodied carbon,28 provinces in China bore net environmental losses in foreign trade.Among them,Xinjiang andGansu had the highest proportions of environmental net loss.The proportions were 69.29% and 57.43%,respectively.Seven provinces,including Tianjin and Jilin,not only lost the benefits of trade in value-added,but also suffered from the environmental pollution causedby the embodied carbon in net export trade.According to the conclusion,this study puts forward suggestions to vigorously develop cleanenergy,promote differentiated emission targets between provinces and optimize the structure of foreign trade.