“一带一路”沿线国家或地区间人口迁移的空间格局及其演化特征

A study on the spatial patterns and their evolution of international migration among countries or areas along the Belt and Road

基于联合国人口司国际移民存量数据,借助社会网络分析等方法,对1990—2017年“一带一路”沿线国家或地区间人口迁移的空间格局及其演化特征进行研究。主要结论如下(:1)沿线国家或地区间人口迁移规模扩大,增速加快,迁移路径更加多样化(;2)沿线国家或地区间人口迁移空间分布呈集中性特征,迁移目的地集中于俄罗斯、印度、沙特阿拉伯等国,来源地集中于俄罗斯、印度以及亚洲大部分国家(;3)沿线国家或地区间人口迁移网络具有临近效应、国际地缘政治效应和路径依赖效应(;4)沿线国家或地区间人口迁移网络具有明显的社团结构特征,可分为独联体社团、中东欧社团、中东社团、伊拉克-伊朗-阿富汗社团、北非-海湾-南亚-东南亚社团、中国内部社团。

Based on the international migration stock data released by the United Nations Population Division, this paper explores the spatial patterns and their evolution of international migration among countries along the Belt and Road from 1990 to 2017 by the methods of social network analysis and others. The results show that:(1) The scale of migration between countries or areas along the route has expanded, the growth rate has accelerated, and the migration paths have become more diversified;(2) The spatial pattern of international migration in countries or areas along the route feature as centralized distribution. The destinations are concentrated in Russia,India, Saudi Arabia and other countries or areas, and the sources are concentrated in Russia, India, and most countries in Asia;(3)The migration networks of countries or areas along the route has proximity effect, international geopolitical effect and path-dependent effect;(4)The migration networks between countries or areas along the route has prominent community structure characteristics, and these countries can be divided into the following groups of associations: the CIS Association, the Middle and East European association, the Middle East association, the Iraq-Iran-Afghanistan association, the North Africa-Gulf-South Asia-Southeast Asia association and the Chinese internal associate.