基于事件数据分析法的两岸关系测度及影响因素研究

Study on the measurement and influencing factors of cross-strait relations——Based on event data analysis

海峡两岸同根同源,发展两岸关系、推进祖国统一是实现中华民族伟大复兴的必然要求。从政治互动、经贸往来和文旅交流3个维度构建两岸关系综合评价指标体系,利用事件数据分析法和熵值法,对2000—2018年的两岸关系进行定量测度、演化阶段划分及影响因素分析,进而对两岸关系的良性发展提出建议。结果表明:(1)21世纪以来,两岸关系经历了低谷波动期(2000年1月—2008年5月)、全面发展期(2008年6月—2016年5月)和冷却回落期(2016年6月—2018年12月),呈现整体周期性、局部突变性的演化特征;(2)两岸关系主要受区域地缘环境、大陆综合实力、台湾政党轮替以及非传统安全因素等4个方面的影响;(3)大陆应当持续优化两岸关系地缘环境、继续提升综合实力、推进两岸社会融合以及建立防范非传统安全风险的机制。

Chinese Taiwan and Chinese mainland have the same race and culture.Promoting the integration of the two sides and the process of reunification across the Taiwan straits is an inevitable requirement to realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.This paper constructed the comprehensive index evaluation system of cross-strait relations from three dimensions,including the official interaction,economic and trade exchanges and cultural and tourism exchanges.Using event data analysis method and entropy method,this paper conducted the quantitative index measurement,evolution stage division and influencing factors analysis of cross-strait relations from 2000 to 2018,and then put forward suggestions for the development of cross-strait relations.The conclusions are as follows:(1) Since the 21st century,cross-strait relations have experienced a period of low fluctuation(2000.1-2008.5),a period of comprehensive development(2008.6-2016.5) and a cooling down period(2016.6-2018.12);(2) Crossstrait relations have been mainly affected by the geographical environment,the comprehensive strength of Chinese mainland,the political party rotation of Taiwan,and non-traditional security factors;(3) Chinese mainland should continue to improve the geographical environment of crossstrait relations,enhance its comprehensive strength,promote social integration across the Taiwan strait,and establish mechanisms to prevent non-traditional security incidents.