地方经济政策不确定性与企业扩张选址——基于上市公司设立子公司的证据

Local Economic Policy Uncertainty and Location Choice of Enterprise Expansion:Based on the Evidence of Listed Companies’Subsidiaries

中国具有较大的国内市场规模和差异化的资源禀赋,促使企业往往将地理空间的布局与扩张作为重要战略。使用2007—2017年我国A股上市公司新设子公司的数据,文章实证检验了地方经济政策不确定性如何影响子公司的区位选择。基准回归结果表明,母公司所在地的经济政策不确定性会降低企业在本地新设子公司的可能性,促使企业在更大空间范围内进行扩张;子公司所在地的经济政策不确定性会显著降低企业在当地新设子公司的数量,这一影响在2013年以后更为显著。异质性分析表明,地方经济政策不确定性具有选择效应,非国有企业、高竞争行业受经济政策不确定性的抑制作用更为显著。调节效应检验表明,地理距离和经济距离对地方经济政策不确定性具有调节效应,家乡关系和校友关系不具有调节效应。进一步的研究表明,地方经济政策不确定性或能改变企业扩散规律,促使初创期企业扩张由圈地模式转向跳跃模式,不利于初创期企业实现规模经济效应。

China has a large domestic market scale and differentiated resource endowment,which makes enterprise location and expansion very important.Based on the data of A-share listed companies and their subsidiaries from 2007 to2017,this paper tests how the local economic policy uncertainty(EPU)affects the location of subsidiaries.Benchmark regression shows that the EPU of the province where the parent company is located has a significant negative influence on the establishment of subsidiaries locally,which promotes enterprises to expand their markets in a wider range.The EPU of the province where the subsidiary is located has a significant negative influence on the number of subsidiaries,which is more significant after 2013.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the local EPU has selective effect,which means the negative influence is more significant for non-state-owned and high-competition enterprises.Regulatory effect test shows that geographical distance and economic gap have significant moderating effects on the local EPU,while hometown relations and alumni relations don’t have any significant moderating effect on the local EPU.Further research shows that the local EPU can probably change the law of enterprise mode,which promotes new enterprises to change from enclosure mode to jumping mode and damages the scale economy effect.