长江经济带市域土地资源承载力时空分异与影响因素探析

Spatial-temporal Differentiation and Driving Factors Identification of Urban Land Resources Carrying Capacity in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

土地资源承载力时空分异及其影响因素探讨可为制定差别化的国土空间优化策略提供一定依据。文章以长江经济带作为典型研究案例,以市域作为研究尺度,从土地资源经济承载力、社会承载力及生态承载力维度构建评价指标体系,运用熵权TOPSIS法测算2000—2018年长江经济带市域土地资源承载力水平;综合空间自相关模型、地理探测器模型等方法探讨长江经济带市域土地资源承载力时空分异特征与影响因素。结果表明:①2000年以来长江经济带市域土地资源承载力表现为一定的提升态势,且土地资源承载力水平区域差异表现为下游>中游>上游。②全局上,研究期间长江经济带市域土地资源承载力呈现出正的空间相关性特征;局部上表现为“小集聚大分散”空间分异格局,H-H型主要集聚在上海及苏南地区,并不断向杭绍甬空间演化,而L-L型主要集聚在川西高原区及滇西南地区。③交互探测结果显示,人均GDP、城市化率及二三产产值比重是影响长江经济带市域土地资源承载力空间分异的主导因子,且与其他因子交互驱动力强于单因子作用,交互作用类型以双因子增强为主。

The study on the spatial-temporal variation of land resources carrying capacity and its influencing factors can provide some basis for the formulation of differentiated territorial space optimization strategies.Taking the Yangtze River Economic Belt as the research area,this study constructs the evaluation index system of urban land resource carrying capacity in 2000-2018 at city level from three dimensions of land resource economic carrying capacity,ecological carrying capacity and social carrying capacity.The TOPSIS method of entropy weight is used to measure the land resources carrying capacity.Spatial autocorrelation model and geographic detector model are integrated to analyze its spatial-temporal differentiation characteristics and driving factors.The results showed that:1)The land resources carrying capacity has shown a certain improvement trend in 2000-2018,there are significant regional differences in the land resources carrying capacity,it is at the highest level in lower reaches of the Yangtze River Economic Belt,followed by the middle reaches.2)The land resources carrying capacity is positively correlated,the spatial form of LISA is characterized by"small agglomeration and large dispersion",H-H areas are clustered in Shanghai and southern Jiangsu,while L-L areas are clustered in western Sichuan and southwest Yunnan.3)The interactive detection results show that the per capita GDP,urbanization rate and the proportion of the output value of secondary and tertiary industries are the dominant factors affecting the spatial differentiation of land resource carrying capacity,and the interaction driving force with other factors is stronger than the single factor,and the interaction type is mainly strengthened by the double factor.