城市落户门槛对流动人口犯罪率的影响

The Influence of the Threshold of Urban Settlement on the Crime Rate of Floating Population

流动人口为城市发展做出了巨大贡献,但他们在城市落户及享受公共服务、获得身份认同等方面的门槛却很高,这可能会引发一系列社会问题。在中国家庭金融调查与研究中心公布的城市落户门槛指数的基础上,构建“流动人口落户门槛指数户数比”变量,分析流动人口落户门槛指数户数比是否影响流动人口犯罪意愿及其影响机制。利用中国流动人口动态监测数据(CMDS)和中国裁判文书网数据,分析发现:在控制了是否有犯罪前科、收入、受教育水平、民族和年龄等一系列变量后,流动人口落户门槛指数户数比显著影响了流动人口犯罪率,社会歧视在对流动人口犯罪率的影响中起中介作用。

The floating population has made great contribution to urban development,but the threshold for them to settle down in the city and enjoy public services and obtain identity is very high,which may cause a series of social problems.Based on the household settlement threshold index published by China Household Finance Survey and Research Center,this paper constructs the variable of household settlement threshold index ratio of floating population to analyze whether the household settlement threshold index ratio of floating population affects the criminal intention of floating population and its influencing mechanism.By analysis of the data of China Dynamic Monitoring Survey and that of China Judgements Online,it is found that after controlling for a series of variables such as criminal record,income,education level,ethnicity and age,the household registration index significantly increases the crime rate of the floating population and affects the crime rate of floating population by influencing their sense of identity.