不同工况下库区大型岩质滑坡稳定性分析

Stability Analysis of Large Rock Landslide in Reservoir Area under Different Working Conditions

编号为TM滑坡位于金沙江上游巴塘水电站库区,最大相对高差达到700m,属大型岩质滑坡。文章基于现场勘探+数值模拟方式,对TM滑坡在天然工况、地震工况、降雨工况以及蓄水工况四种工况下的稳定性进行了评估分析。结果表明:在天然工况下,TM滑坡稳定系数达到1.42,具备足够的安全储备,不会发生失稳破坏;在地震和降雨两种不利工况下,滑坡仍能保持稳定状态;随着蓄水水位升高,滑坡的稳定系数逐渐减小,失效概率逐渐增大,当蓄水水位达到2550m后,稳定系数小于1,失效概率达到78.15%,极有可能发生失稳破坏。

TM landslide is located in Batang Hydropower Station reservoir area in the upper reaches of Jinsha River.The maximum relative height difference reaches 700m,and it belongs to a large rock landslide.The stability of TM landslide under four working conditions of natural working condition,earthquake working condition,rainfall working condition and water storage working condition is evaluated and analyzed based on field exploration+numerical simulation in the paper.The results show that the stability coefficient of TM landslide reaches 1.42 under natural conditions.It has sufficient safety reserve and no instability damage.The landslide can still maintain stable state under two unfavorable conditions of earthquake and rainfall.The stability coefficient of landslide is decreased gradually,and the failure probability is increased gradually with the rise of water storage level.The stability coefficient is less than 1,and the failure probability reaches 78.15%when the water storage level reaches 2550m,and it indicates that it is very likely to produce instability failure of landslide.