未来30年我国粮食增产潜力与保障能力研究

Study on the Production Increasing Potential and Guarantee Capability of Grain in China in the Next 30 Years

【目的】评估我国未来30年粮食增产潜力和需求总量,科学判断我国未来粮食保障能力,并提出政策建议。【方法】基于GAEZ评估4种主要粮食作物的潜在单产,结合其现实种植面积计算粮食生产和增产潜力,并采用VAR模型和分项估算法预测我国未来30年粮食需求量,在此基础上分析粮食保障能力。【结果】2020—2050年,我国稻谷、小麦、玉米和大豆仍有1.08亿t(51.30%)、0.48亿t(36.05%)、2.33亿t(89.16%)和0.25亿t(153.75%)的增产潜力,总体的粮食增产潜力达4.42亿t(66.56%),其中粮食主产区的增产潜力占74%。稻谷和小麦的需求量预计在2035年达到峰值2.16和1.43亿t,玉米和大豆需求量预计在2045年达到峰值3.38和1.39亿t,粮食总需求预计在2040年达到峰值9.02亿t。【结论】未来30年,我国完全有能力确保“口粮绝对安全、谷物基本自给”,也有能力将大豆自给率提升至30%,关键是需从后备耕地资源开发、高标准基本农田建设、农业科技研发和推广、农村土地流转引导和优化等方面充分挖掘粮食增产潜力。

【Objective】This paper aims to evaluate production increasing potential and total demand of grain in China in the next 30 years,scientifically judge China’s future food security capacity and put forward policy implications. 【Method】Based on the GAEZ model,this study systematically evaluated the production increasing potential of grain and four main grain crops in China and various provinces were,then used the VAR model and itemized estimation method to predict the grain demand in the next 30 years.At last,the future grain guarantee capability was analyzed.【Result】The production increasing potential of rice,wheat,maize and soybean was 108 million ton(51.30%),48 million ton(36.05%),233 million ton(89.16%)and 25 million ton(153.75%)respectively in 2020—2050,and the overall production increasing potential of grain was 442 million ton(66.56%),of which the grain production increasing potential in main grain producing areas accounted for 74%. The rice and wheat demand was expected to peak at 216 and 143 million ton in 2035,maize and soybean demand was expected to peak at 338 and 139 million ton in 2045,respectively,and total grain demand was expected to peak at 902 million ton in 2040.【Conclusion】In the next 30 years,China is fully capable of ensuring“absolute security of rations and basic self-sufficient of cereals”,as well as raising the self-sufficiency ratio of soybeans to 30%. The key is to effectively tap the potential of grain production from the aspects of the development of reserve cultivated land resources,the construction of high-standard basic farmland,the research and promotion of agricultural science and technology,and the guidance and optimization of rural land transfer.