水库移民短途乡城流动驱动因素分析

Analysis on driving factors of short-distance rural-urban flow of reservoir resettlement

为探究影响水库移民从跨市流动转向短途乡城流动的驱动因素,基于新迁移经济学,以广东省清远市清新区水库移民作为研究对象,采用偏最小二乘Logistics回归法构建了短途乡城流动指标体系。通过对其深入分析发现:家庭因素对于移民选择短途乡城流动有显著的影响,收入不再是移民流动空间抉择的首要考虑因素;水库移民人口流动代际差异显著。在此基础上提出了几点建议:促进城市公共服务均等化,加强城镇基础设施建设和公共服务保障;城镇应发挥自身优势,坚持创新驱动,发展特色产业;继续加强移民教育投入,提升其文化水平和就业竞争力。

This article explores the driving factors that convert reservoir resettlement from inter-city flow to short-distance rural-urban flow.Based on the new economics of migration, taking the reservoir resettlement from Qingyuan City, Guangdong Province as the research object, the partial least squares Logistics regression method was used to construct a short-distance rural-urban flow index system.Through in-depth analysis, it was found that family factors had a significant impact on reservoir resettlement choice of short-distance rural-urban flow, and income was no longer the primary consideration in the choice of flow destination;there were significant intergenerational differences in the flow of reservoir resettlement.On this basis, several policy recommendations were put forward: promoting the equalization of urban public services, strengthening urban infrastructure construction and public service guarantee;cities and towns should give full play to their own advantages, insist on innovation-driven development, and develop characteristic industries;continuing to increase investment in reservoir resettlement education, improving their cultural level and employment competitiveness.