不确定性社会的“风险”及其治理困境

“Risk” in an Uncertainty Society and Its Governance Dilemma

可计算和定域的风险社会正在迈向难测和离域的不确定性社会。与日俱增的“不确定性”经验与量子的不确定性“革命”共同挑战了擅长预测、防范和控制的风险理论。在经典风险社会理论中,“风险”概念的发展得益于从可计算风险到不可计算风险的二元建构,但可计算/不可计算的风险框架对不确定性社会的洞察力十分有限;技术官僚主义和新自由主义两种风险遏制技术将风险治理局限于社会控制和社会秩序,在思维方式和方法上仍然沿袭各种“先验”工具理解和管理“危险的风险”。为了与新的“不确定性”社会事实紧密接轨,以及回应全球不确定性时代的现实需求,未来风险研究的理论思路可以尝试从“风险”向“不确定性风险”发展。

A calculable and localized risk society is moving towards an unpredictable and delocalized uncertainty society. The growing experience of “uncertainty” and the quantum “uncertainty revolution” challenge the risk theory, which specializes in prediction, prevention and control. In the classical risk society theory, the development of the concept of “risk” benefits from the binary construction from calculable risks to incalculable risks, but the calculable/incalculable risk framework provides limited insight into uncertainty society;two risk containment technologies, namely technical bureaucracy and neoliberalism, limit risk governance to social control and social order, and continue to follow various “a priori” tools to understand and manage “dangerous risks”. In order to be closely aligned with the new social fact of “uncertainty” and to respond to the practical needs of the era of global uncertainty, the theoretical ideas of future risk study could try to move from “risk” to “uncertainty risk”.