中国产业结构高级化与旅游效率耦合协调发展

On the coupling and coordinated development of China's industrial structure upgrading and tourism efficiency

综合运用Bootstrap-DEA模型、耦合协调模型、空间自相关、核密度估计等方法,在测算中国30个省区产业结构高级化水平和旅游效率的基础上,进一步探究二者的耦合协调发展情况及时空分异特征.研究表明:产业结构高级化水平的上升趋势明显,呈现出东部>中部>西部>东北部的空间分布特征;旅游效率的上升趋势和波动特征显著,呈现出中部>东部>东北部>西部的空间分布格局;中国产业结构高级化与旅游效率的耦合协调度逐渐由失调状态转为良好耦合协调状态,并呈现出东部>中部>东北部>西部的空间布局;产业结构高级化和旅游效率的耦合协调度具有正向空间自相关特征,局部空间聚类类型以“H-H”集聚型和“L-L”集聚型为主,“H-L”集聚型和“L-H”集聚型的省区数量渐增,耦合协调度的空间异质性有所增强;产业结构高级化与旅游效率耦合协调度的核密度曲线逐渐偏右分布,右拖尾渐趋延展收敛,主峰峰值上升波宽缩窄且单峰演化趋势渐强,二者耦合协调发展状态良好,虽存在区域差距,但两极分化情况有所改善.

By a comprehensive use of bootstrap DEA model,coupling coordination model,spatial autocorrelation,kernel density estimation and other methods,and on the basis of calculating the advanced level of industrial structure and tourism efficiency of the 30 provinces in China,the paper further explores the coupling and coordinated development and temporal and spatial differentiation characteristics of the two.The research shows:(1)The upgrading level of industrial structure is on an obvious upward trend,with a spatial distribution characteristics of Eastern Area>Central Area>Western Area>Northeastern Area;the rising trend and fluctuation characteristics of tourism efficiency are significant,showing a spatial distribution pattern Central Area>Eastern Area>Northeastern Area>Western Area.(2)The degree of coupling and coordination between the upgrading of China's industrial structure and tourism efficiency has gradually changed from maladjusted state to good coupling and coordination state,presenting a spatial layout of Eastern Area>Central Area>Northeastern Area>Western Area.(3)The coupling coordination degree of industrial structure upgrading and tourism efficiency has the characteristics of positive spatial auto-correlation.The local spatial cluster types are mainly“H-H”cluster type and“L-L”cluster type.The number of provinces and regions of“H-L”cluster type and“L-H”cluster type is increasing,and the spatial heterogeneity of coupling coordination degree is enhanced.(4)The nuclear density curve of the coupling coordination degree of industrial structure upgrading and tourism efficiency is gradually distributed to the right,the right tail is gradually extended and converged,the rising wave width of the main peak and peak is narrowed,and the single peak evolution trend is becoming stronger.The coupling and coordinated development of the two is in good condition.Although there is a regional gap,the polarization has decreased.