碳排放监测预警体系研究——基于中国省级相关数据的分析

Research on Carbon Emissions Monitoring and Early Warning System:Analysis Based on the Provincial Panel Data of China

为深入贯彻落实习近平生态文明思想,确保实现碳达峰、碳中和目标,有必要准确识别碳排放风险因子。论文利用2004—2018年中国各省份相关数据,从能源消费、产业结构和技术进步角度构建了碳排放分项预警和综合预警评价指标体系,并测算了碳排放综合及分项预警指标值。结果表明:我国碳排放预警指数整体上处于缓慢上升趋势,即整体上我国碳排放风险正在逐步减小,但不同区域之间的碳排放风险存在差异。其中,能源消费分项预警指数对碳排放综合预警指数的影响最小且随时间呈现进一步下降趋势,产业结构分项预警指数对碳排放综合预警指数的影响呈现下降趋势,技术进步分项预警指数对碳排放综合预警指数的影响最大。最后提出加快技术升级、扩大造林面积、提升高新技术产业规模、推广节能技术、提高低碳零碳能源消费比例等降低碳排放风险的途径。

It is necessary to reveal the characteristics and rules of China’s carbon emission risk to thoroughly implement Xi Jinping’s ecological civilization thought and ensure the realization of the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality.Based on the data of various provinces in China from 2004 to 2018,three sub-warning index systems of energy consumption,industrial structure and technological progress and a comprehensive early warning index system were constructed from the perspective of macro analysis.The early warning index values of carbon emissions in different regions of China were calculated by using entropy weight method.The results show that China’s carbon emission warning index is in a slow rising trend on the whole,but the gap between regions is widening.Among them,energy consumption has the least impact on carbon emission composite index and shows a further downward trend over time,industrial structure has the overall downward trend on carbon emission,and technological progress has the largest impact on carbon emission early warning composite index.The paper also proposes effective ways to reduce carbon emission risk in the future,such as technological upgrading of industrial enterprises,expanding afforestation area,upgrading the scale of high-tech industries,promoting energy-saving technology,and gradually increasing the proportion of low-carbon new energy consumption.