1998-2020年黄河流域径流与降水演变规律研究

利用黄河流域1998-2020年的水文数据,运用距平累积法、M-K趋势检验与突变分析、累积量斜率变化率比较法等方法,对黄河流域径流量与降水量变化趋势进行分析,并对影响径流的降水与人类活动等因素进行定量分析。结果发现,黄河流域径流量与降水量呈现出明显的阶段性的变化特征,径流量在2004年发生突变,降水量在2010年发生突变,且突变后均呈现逐年上升趋势,其中降水量上升趋势更加显著。突变发生后降水与人类活动对径流量共同影响的变化趋势明显增强,降水对径流量增大的贡献率为4.38%,人类活动对径流量增大的贡献率为95.62%。目前人类活动已成为黄河流域径流变化的主要因素。

Based on the hydrological data of the Yellow River from 1998 to 2020,the variation trend of runoff and precipitation in the Yellow River basin is analyzed by means of anomaly accumulation method,Mmurk trend test and catastrophe analysis,cumulative slope change rate comparison method and so on.The factors affecting runoff,such as precipitation and human activities,are analyzed quantitatively.The results show that the runoff and precipitation in the Yellow River basin show obvious phased change characteristics,the runoff has a sudden change in 2004,and the precipitation has a sudden change in 2010,and after the sudden change,it shows an upward trend year by year,in which the upward trend of precipitation is more significant.After the sudden change,the change trend of the joint impact of precipitation and human activities on runoff is obviously enhanced,the contribution rate of precipitation to runoff increase is 4.38%,and the contribution rate of human activities to runoff increase is 95.62%.At present,human activities have become the main factor of runoff change in the Yellow River basin.