共享社会经济路径在土地利用、能源与碳排放研究的应用

Multiple application of shared socioeconomic pathways in land use,energy and carbon emission research

情景是气候变化研究的重要工具。为了科学支撑气候变化科学评估和研究,2010年政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)提出了共享社会经济路径(Shared Socioeconomic Pathways,SSPs)。作为从社会经济变化视角构建的气候情景,SSPs促进了气候变化科学基础、影响、脆弱性、风险、适应和减缓等学科的综合研究。本文介绍了SSPs情景研发与应用过程;阐述了全球和中国的人口经济、土地利用、能源和碳排放的模拟和预估主要成果;探讨了全球和中国碳排放路径及其与“双碳”目标的关系;并展望了SSPs应用前景。

Scenario is an important tool for climate change projection.The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)developed the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)in 2010,aiming to scientifically support the Fifth Assessment Report(IPCC AR5),Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP),Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project(ISI-MIP),and other international programs.As climate scenarios developed from a socioeconomic perspective,SSPs facilitate climate change research including physical science,impacts,vulnerability,risk,adaptation and mitigation.In this paper,we first describe the development process of SSPs and their possible application.Next,the simulation and global and Chinese results of population and economy,land use,energy and carbon emissions are simulated and projected.In particular,the carbon emission trajectories under different SSPs and their relationship with the“two-carbon”target are also quantified on scales for both the world and China.Finally,a prospective application of SSPs is presented.