气候变化影响下我国冬油菜物候期时空演变分析

Spatial-temporal Evolution of Winter Rapeseed Phenology under Climate Change in China

农作物物候是农业生产决策的重要依据,其变化关系到粮食的可持续生产,其中,保证油料作物生产是保障我国粮食生产的重要组成部分。油菜作为我国第一大油料作物,研究其物候信息随时间和空间的变化,可为油菜生产提供策略依据。本研究利用1992—2013年农业物候观测站及气象站数据,通过线性回归的方法,探索我国冬油菜物候期的时空演变及对气候因子响应程度。结果表明:1)空间上,纬度每增加1°,冬油菜播种期提前2.84 d,开花期、成熟期分别推迟5.3和3.74 d。2)时间上,我国冬油菜的现蕾期、开花期和成熟期平均推迟了3.1、0.03和0.13 d/10 a。3)气候因子响应程度上,温度、降水和日照3个气候因子中,温度对冬油菜物候期的影响最大,生长期内温度每增加1℃,现蕾期、开花期和成熟期分别提前6.05、1.94和0.43 d。按照1992—2021年的气候变化趋势,到2050年我国冬油菜现蕾期、开花期、成熟期将平均提前9.96、2.58和0.88 d。气候变化将导致作物物候期的变化,进而影响到作物的生产。为应对气候变化对我国冬油菜物候期的影响,建议培育和种植生长期更长的品种,以保证我国冬油菜的生产。

Crop phenology is an important basis for agricultural production decision-making,and its change is related to the sustainable production of food,among which ensuring oil crop production is an important part of guaranteeing food production in China.Rapeseed(Brassica napus L.)is the largest oil crop in China.The changes of its phenological information with time and space were studied to provide a strategic basis for the production of Rapeseed.Based on the data of agricultural phenological stations and meteorological stations from 1992 to 2013,this paper explored the spatial-temporal evolution of winter rapeseed phenology in China and its response to climate factors through linear regression method.The results show as follows:1)Spatially,the sowing date of winter rapeseed was advanced by 2.84 days,flowering and maturity were delayed by 5.3 days and 3.74 days,respectively,with each increase of latitude of 1°.2)In terms of time,the budding,flowering and maturity stages of winter rapeseed in China were delayed by 3.1,0.03 and 0.13 days per decades on average.3)Among the three climate factors,temperature had the greatest influence on the phenological stage of winter rapeseed,and the budding stage,flowering stage and maturity stage were advanced by 6.05,1.94 and 0.43 days for each 1℃increase in temperature during the growth period.According to the climate change trend from 1992 to 2021,the bud,flowering and maturity stages of winter rapeseed in China will advance by 9.96,2.58 and 0.88 days on average by 2050.Climate change will lead to the change of crop phenology,which will affect crop production.In order to cope with the effects of climate change on winter rapeseed phenology in China,it is suggested to cultivate and plant varieties with longer growing period to ensure the production of winter rapeseed in China.