价值观、程序、还是绩效?合法性视角下的中小国家对华经济依赖与外交政策跟从

Values,Procedures,or Performance?Understanding Economic Dependence and Foreign Policy of Small and Medium-sized Countries on China in the Lens of Legitimacy

传统观点认为,中小国家与大国之间的不对称经济依赖是后者权力的主要来源之一。随着中国经济实力的提升,其他国家(尤其是中小国家)对中国的经济依赖,是否会促使其在政治和安全等议题上向中国的立场靠拢,形成对中国的外交政策跟从?这一问题在国际关系学界引起了关注与争论。已有研究从中国的实力基础以及经济治国术的运用等不同角度,对这一问题进行了探讨。不同于既有研究,文章聚焦于对象国自身的特质,即领导人合法性的主要来源。文章提出,当领导人主要依靠绩效合法性时,对象国对中国的经济依赖更有可能促使该国在外交政策上向中国靠拢,中国的经济实力更容易转化为对该国的影响力。当对象国领导人主要依靠程序合法性或价值观合法性时,经济依赖对该国外交政策的影响可能受到限制。文章以马来西亚、越南和菲律宾为案例对这一理论框架进行了检验。

Traditionally,the asymmetric economic dependence between small and medium-sized countries and large ones is seen as a major source of power for the latter.As China’s economy has matured,will other countries’economic dependence on China prompt them to move closer to China’s position on politics and security issues,resulting in foreign policy compliance with China?This question has attracted widespread attention and debate in international relations scholarship.Studies have been conducted to explore it from various perspectives,including China’s strength and the implementation of its economic statecraft.This paper,in contrast to previous research,focuses on the characteristics of the target country itself,that is,the main sources of political legitimacy.This study argues that when performance-based state legitimacy predominates,the target country’s economic dependence on China is more likely to facilitate its foreign policy alignment with China,and China’s economic power is more likely to develop into influence over that country;when procedure-based or value-based legitimacy prevails,economic dependence hasa more limited impact on the target state’s foreign policy.This paper examines this theoretical framework with three cases in Malaysia,Vietnam,and the Philippines.