差异化政策工具对耕地保护效果的影响

The impact of differentiated policy tools on cultivated land protection

耕地保护作为土地政策调控的重要课题,其实施效果是维护社会稳定与国家粮食安全的重要保证。耕地保护政策工具是政策执行主体为完成耕地保护目标采取的具体手段,而差异化政策工具会直接影响耕地保护效果。本文运用马尔可夫区制转换向量自回归模型揭示政策工具与耕地保护效果之间的动态非线性特征,为充分发挥耕地保护政策工具“组合拳”作用的理论构建和深入研究提供新视角。研究结果表明:(1)耕地保护效果表现出明显的二区制特征,分别为缓慢增长期(区制1)和稳定增长期(区制2);并且耕地保护效果具备非线性周期变化的迹象,两个区制间的转换节点(即拐点)的出现与重要政策文本颁布时间相吻合。(2)在缓慢增长期,为保障耕地保护绩效,必须加强命令控制工具和经济激励工具的使用力度。在稳定增长期,应当加强宣传引导工具的使用,进而促进政策创新与传播。(3)政策执行过程中政策适用性和执行压力的变化,使耕地保护效果在区制1和区制2之间存在相互转换的特征,进而使耕地保护效果的区制转移概率存在明显的非对称性,且耕地保护效果在区制1的维持概率稍大于区制2。同时,预测分析表明,若政府放松对耕地保护工作的重视,耕地保护效果随时有可能由区制2转变为区制1。本文运用的非线性计量模型有助于深化耕地保护效果问题的研究。

Cultivated land protection is an important subject of land policy regulation, and its implementation is an important guarantee for maintaining social stability and national food security. The cultivated land protection policy tool is the specific means adopted by the policy implementers to achieve the goal of cultivated land protection, and the differentiated policy tools will directly affect the effect of cultivated land protection. This study used the Markov-switching VAR model to reveal the dynamic nonlinear characteristics of the relationship between policy tools and the effect of cultivated land protection, and to provide a new perspective for the theoretical construction and in-depth analysis of the combined effects of cultivated land protection policy tools. The results show that:(1) The effect of cultivated land protection shows clear dual-regime characteristics, with a slow growth regime(regime 1) and a stable growth regime(regime 2).Moreover, the effect of cultivated land protection shows signs of nonlinear periodic changes, and the emergence of the transition node(the inflection point) between the two regimes coincides with the promulgation of important policy texts.(2) In the period of slow growth, in order to guarantee the performance of cultivated land protection, the use of command and control tool and economic incentive tool must be strengthened. In the period of steady growth, the use of publicity and guidance tool should be strengthened to promote policy innovation and dissemination.(3) Changes in policy applicability and implementation pressure during policy implementation lead to regime transition. Asymmetry occurs in the regime transition probability of cultivated land protection effect, and the probability that cultivated land protection effect falls within regime 1 is slightly greater than in regime 2 Prediction analysis shows that if the government relaxes its emphasis on cultivated land protection, the cultivated land protection effect may change from regime 2 to regime 1 at any time. In conclusion, the nonlinear econometric model used in this study helps to deepen the research on the effect of cultivated land protection.