黄河流域数字经济对高质量发展的影响——来自城市异质性的经验证据

The impact of digital economy on high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin:Empirical evidence from urban heterogeneity

黄河流域高质量发展是新时代下重大的国家发展战略,作为新型经济形态的数字经济能否助推黄河流域实现经济高质量发展是有待探究的重要议题。鉴于此,运用内生增长数理模型厘清数字经济作用于高质量发展的机理,并构建流域内城市的数字经济指数和水资源约束下的高质量发展指数,基于2011—2018年流域内沿线城市的面板数据,实证检验数字经济对高质量发展的提升作用及传导路径。结果表明:(1)全流域内数字经济能够显著提升高质量发展水平,非资源型城市的提升效果相较资源型城市更佳。(2)数字经济的高质量发展效应具有边际报酬后发递增优势,上游、中游城市相较于下游城市更为显著。(3)数字经济的作用效果随着城市规模的扩大呈现“倒U型”特征,中等城市是未来发展数字经济的重点所在。(4)产业结构高度化、技术创新、技术效率是数字经济推动高质量发展的关键传导路径,产业结构合理化则是重要的潜在作用渠道,分维度的互联网发展和普惠金融呈现一致的趋同效应。本文的政策启示是:要充分认识城市性质、城市区位以及城市规模的差异化影响,因地制宜强化数字经济的高质量发展红利效应;顺应新一轮科技革命发展浪潮,助推产业结构升级与技术进步,为黄河流域未来实现高质量发展提供重要支撑。

High-quality development in the Yellow River Basin is a major national development strategy in the new era. As a higher economic form, whether digital economy can become the driving force of high-quality urban development in the basin remains to be explored. This study used the endogenous growth mathematical model to examine how the digital economy affects highquality development. It constructed the digital economy development index of cities in the Yellow River Basin and the high-quality development index under water resources constraints, and empirically tested the promotional effect of digital economy on high-quality development and transmission paths based on the panel data of cities in the basin from 2011 to 2018. The results show that:(1) The digital economy in the Yellow River Basin can significantly improve the highquality development level, and the improvement effect of non resource-based cities is better than that of resource-based cities.(2) The high-quality development effect of digital economy has the advantage of late onset and increasing marginal return, and this advantage is more significant in the upstream and midstream cities than the downstream cities.(3) The effect of digital economy presents the characteristics of inverted-U shaped relationship with the expansion of urban scale.Medium-sized cities are the focus of developing digital economy in the future.(4) The upgrading of industrial structure, technological progress, and improvement in technical efficiency are the key transmission paths for the digital economy to promote high-quality development. Optimization of industrial structure is an important potential channel. The multi-dimensional Internet development and inclusive finance show a consistent convergence effect. The policy implication is to fully understand the differential impact of urban characteristics, urban location, and urban scale, and strengthen the high-quality development dividend effect of digital economy according to local conditions;comply with the new round of scientific and technological revolution, promote the upgrading of industrial structure and technological progress, and provide important support for the future high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin.