人心难读:冲突中的预测偏差及其心理机制

Inaccurate mind reading:The misprediction in conflicts and its mechanisms

广泛存在的预测偏差严重妨碍了冲突管理,因此,欲解决冲突管理的难题,必须探究人类在冲突中的预测偏差。然而现有研究多着眼于非冲突中的预测偏差,未考虑冲突的独特性。本项目旨在突破当前的理论困境,探讨冲突事件中预测偏差的独特规律及其心理机制与后果,具体而言包括四大目标:(1)聚焦冲突事件中的预测偏差,并以对应的非冲突事件作为对照,揭示预测偏差在冲突中独特的表现形式,提出冲突事件的“偏差放大效应”;(2)从动机性认知视角探讨“偏差放大效应”的心理成因,揭示“负性驱动机制”;(3)考察“负性驱动机制”下预测偏差导致的后果;(4)设计有效的去偏差方案。本项目最终将构建冲突事件中预测偏差的理论模型,推动对预测偏差的全面理解,发展行为决策理论,帮助公众和社会治理者准确预测他人,提升冲突管理能力,提高决策质量。

The prevalence of misprediction hinders conflict management.Therefore,it is imperative to explore mispredictions in conflicts to facilitate effective conflict management.However,research has mainly shed light on mispredictions in non-conflicts and neglected the uniqueness of conflicts.This project investigates mispredictions in conflicts and their mechanisms and consequences.Specifically,the aim of this project is fourfold.First,it explores mispredictions in conflicts and proposes the bias-amplification effect of conflicts.Second,it investigates the negativity driving mechanism of the bias-amplification effect.Third,it examines consequences of the mispredictions in conflicts.Last,it develops effective and feasible interventions to eliminate these mispredictions in conflicts.This project is intended to establish a theoretical model of mispredictions in conflicts.The results help to extend theories on behavioral decision making as well as guide the public and social governors to make accurate predictions about others,to improve conflict management,and to reach high-quality decisions.