摘要
储罐区作为储库中的重大危险源,风险因素复杂繁多,有效的风险分析对于储罐区的安全运行至关重要。结合储罐区实际情况,用熵权法对层次分析所得各危险因素的风险权重值进行了修正,增加了权重数据的科学性,形成了多层次风险分析指标体系。针对储罐区数据来源少,各风险因素相关性复杂的特性,通过模糊分析进行风险因素先验概率的计算,构建贝叶斯网络实现了事故类型及概率的动态预测。该方法能很好地实现具有数据来源少、事故后果严重等事故特性的储罐区风险分析。
As a major hazard source in the reservoir, the tank farm has complex risk factors. Effective risk analysis is crucial for the safe operation of tank farm. Combined with the actual situation of the tank farm, the entropy weight method is used to modify the risk weight value of the risk factors obtained from the hierarchical analysis, which increases the scientificity of weight data and forms a multi-level risk analysis index system.In view of the characteristics of few data sources and complex correlation of risk factors in tank farm, the prior probability of risk factors was calculated by fuzzy analysis, and the dynamic prediction of accident types and probabilities was realized by constructing Bayesian network. This method can realize the risk analysis of tank farm with few data sources and serious accident consequences.
作者
彭玉杰
董绍华
谢书懿
段宇航
PENG Yu-jie;DONG Shao-hua;XIE Shu-yi;DUAN Yu-hang(College of Safety and Ocean Engineering,China University of Petroleum in Beijing,Beijing 102249,China;State Key Laboratory for Performance and Structure Safety of Petroleum Tubular Goods and Equipment Materials,CNPC Tubular Goods Research Institute,Shaanxi Xi'an 710077,China)
出处
《消防科学与技术》
CAS
北大核心
2022年第5期634-638,共5页
Fire Science and Technology
关键词
熵权法
层次分析法
模糊分析
贝叶斯网络
储罐区
风险分析
entropy weight method
hierarchical analysis
fuzzy analysis
Bayesian network
tank farm
risk analysis
