我国农村学前教育资源投入的动态演进与趋势预测——基于Kernel密度估计和Markov链方法

On the Dynamic Evolution and Trend Prediction of Resource Investment in Rural Preschool Education——On the Basis of Kernel Density Estimation and Markov Chain Method

学前教育资源的有效投入是学前教育事业健康发展的有力保障。农村学前教育作为学前教育发展的薄弱环节,对其资源投入的分析是实现教育公平的重要依据。基于Dagum基尼系数、Kernel密度估计和Markov链方法,2011-2019年间我国农村学前教育资源投入状况表现为:首先,资源投入在空间上不均衡,“中部塌陷”仍较严重;其次,资源投入差异在九年间有所改善,但东部地区内部和东中部地区间差异仍凸显;第三,资源投入总体差异主要来源于地区间差异;第四,资源投入的绝对差异有缩小趋势,但呈两极或多极分化特征;第五,农村学前教育资源投入水平具有一定稳定性,空间因素对资源投入水平的动态转移影响不明显。据此提出建议:统筹规划,加大落后地区农村学前教育资源投入;科学预测,实现农村学前教育资源的精准投入;加强联动,进一步完善学前教育转移支付制度;严格监督,加强学前教育资源投入的科学管理。

Effective investment in preschool education resources is a powerful guarantee for the healthy development of preschool education. Rural preschool education is a weak link in preschool education devlopment,so the analysis of the current situation of its resource investment is an important basis for realizing educational equity. Based on Dagum Gini coefficient, Kernel density estimation and Markov chain method, features of China’s resource investment in rural preschool education from Year 2011 to 2019 were as follows: first, the resource investment was uneven in space, with serious“central collapse”;second, the difference of resource input was narrowed in the nine years, but the difference between the inner eastern region and the eastern and central regions was still prominent;third, the overall difference of resource input mainly resulted from regional differences;fourth, the absolute difference of resource investment showed a decreasing trend, but was bipolar or multipolar;fifth, rural preschool education resource investment possessed a certain stability, and the impact of spatial factors on the dynamic transfer of resource investment level was not obvious. Hence, it is proposed to make overall planning and increase the resource investment in backward areas;conduct scientific prediction and accurate investment;strengthen linkage and further improve the transfer payment system of preschool education;supervise strictly and strengthen the scientific management of the resource investment.