经济政策不确定性与企业贷款成本--基于甘肃省微观信贷样本的实证分析

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Enterprise Loan Cost:An Empirical Analysis Based on Micro-credit Samples in Gansu Province

宏观经济政策是影响金融资源配置的重要因素,经济政策不确定性会影响银行信贷行为进而对企业融资成本造成影响。本文基于甘肃省微观信贷样本,研究了经济政策不确定性对不同类型企业贷款成本的异质性影响。研究发现,总体来看,经济政策不确定性会导致企业贷款成本增加,具体来看,中小微企业受经济政策不确定性影响较大型企业更显著,非公有制性质的企业更容易受到相关影响。因此本文从注重保持政策稳定性、银行强化政策预期管理和企业提升政策敏感度三方面提出建议,以期降低经济政策不确定性对企业信贷成本的负面影响。

Macroeconomic policy is an important factor affecting the allocation of financial resources,and the uncertainty of economic policy will affect the bank credit behavior and thus the financing cost of enterprises.Based on the micro-credit samples in Gansu Province,this paper studies the heterogeneous impact of economic policy uncertainty on loan costs of different types of enterprises.The results show that,in general,economic policy uncertainty will lead to an increase in the cost of enterprise loans.Specifically,MSMES are more significantly affected by economic policy uncertainty than large enterprises,and non-public companies are more susceptible to the relevant impact.Therefore,this paper puts forward suggestions from three aspects:the government pays attention to maintaining policy stability,banks strengthen policy expectation management and enterprises enhance policy sensitivity,in order to reduce the negative impact of economic policy uncertainty on enterprise credit cost.