数字金融对农户创业行为的影响——基于CFPS2018的经验事实

The Impact of Digital Finance on Farmers’Entrepreneurship——Empirical Facts Based on CFPS2018

结合CFPS2018数据以及北京大学数字普惠金融指数,基于Probit模型,分析县域数字金融发展水平对我国农户创业行为的影响及其异质性,并基于部分可观测的Biprobit模型,检验数字金融发展对农户创业行为影响的作用机制。结论如下第一,县域数字金融发展水平对我国农户创业行为的影响具有倒U型特征,即数字金融发展对农户创业具有先促进再抑制的作用。第二,就数字金融不同子维度而言,覆盖广度呈现出倒U型关系,数字化程度呈现U型关系,而使用深度并无显著影响。第三,异质性分析表明,数字金融对农户创业行为的影响,在不同经济发展水平、创业氛围程度和数字金融发展水平的县域中存在明显差异。最后,作用机制研究发现,数字金融对农户创业意愿的影响是先促进再抑制,而对创业能力始终呈现促进作用。

Combined with CFPS2018 data and Peking University Digital Financial Inclusion Index,this paper analyzes the impact and heterogeneity of county digital finance development level on farmers’entrepreneurial behavior in China based on the Probit model,and examines the action mechanism of county digital financial development on farmers’entrepreneurial behavior based on partially observable Biprobit model.The conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)The impact of county-level digital finance development on Farmers’entrepreneurial behavior has an inverted U-shaped characteristic,that is,the development of county digital finance can first promote and then inhibit farmers’entrepreneurship.This conclusion is still valid after the robustness test.(2)In terms of different sub-dimensions of digital finance,the breadth of coverage presents an inverted U-shaped relationship,and the degree of digitization shows a U-shaped relationship,while the depth of use has no significant impact.(3)Heterogeneity analysis Heterogeneity analysis shows that the impact of digital finance on farmers’entrepreneurship is significantly different in counties with different levels of economic development,entrepreneurial atmosphere,and digital finance development.(4)Research on the mechanism of action shows that digital finance firstly promotes and then inhibits entrepreneurial intention,while it always promotes entrepreneurial ability.