贝叶斯模型中期刊影响因子的信度调整估计

Credibility Adjustment Estimation of Journal Impact Factors in Bayesian Model

期刊影响因子是判定期刊质量的重要标准.本文对影响期刊质量的参数建立了贝叶斯模型,结合已有的期刊影响因子计算公式,利用信度理论方法,给出了期刊影响因子的校正方法,并得到了超参数的估计,证明了估计的统计性质.通过模拟,检验了估计量的相合性和收敛速度.最后,对国内二十几种数学类期刊的影响因子的校正公式进行了实证分析.

Journal impact factor is an important criterion for judging the quality of journals.In this paper,a Bayesian model is established for journal quality parameters,combined with existing journal impact factor calculation formulas,by using the theory of the credibility theory,a correction method for journal impact factors is given.We also obtained the estimation of structure parameters.The statistical properties of the estimation are discussed.Through simulations,the consistency and convergence speed of the estimators are tested.Finally,the empirical analysis of the correction formulas of the impact factors of more than twenty mathematics journals in China.