新疆棉花成本收益与价格时变特征研究

Research on Time-varying Characteristics of Cost-benefit and Price of Cotton in Xinjiang

新疆是国内规模最大的棉花产区。探究新疆棉花的成本收益,不仅可以助推当地农业经济的发展,还可以稳定新疆作为全国最大优质棉生产基地的核心地位、提升中国棉花在国际市场的竞争力。本文运用2005-2020年新疆棉花成本收益资料探讨其时变特征,并构建VAR模型分析新疆棉花种植净利润的影响因素及其动态互动的关系。研究结果表明:新疆棉花种植总成本增速明显,物质与服务费用和人工成本是造成总成本增加的动力源;棉花种植净利润逐年降低,主要由总成本增速过快导致;且棉花出售价格、产量对净利润的正向影响显著,而物质与服务费用等生产要素的投入对净利润的影响多为负向。最后,提出要保障农户植棉效益“,提价增产”是最有效的手段。基于此,应加强政府引导,丰富土地流转形式,强化科技宣传力度。

Cotton,as one of the traditional economic crops in China,involves two major industries of domestic agriculture and textile industry.Xinjiang is the largest cotton producing area in China.Exploring the cost and benefit of Xinjiang cotton can not only boost the development of the local agricultural economy,but also stabilize Xinjiang’s core position as the country’s largest high-quality cotton production base and enhance the competitiveness of Chinese cotton in the international market.This paper uses the cost-benefit data of Xinjiang cotton from 2005 to 2020 to explore its time-varying characteristics,and constructs a VAR model to analyze the influencing factors of Xinjiang cotton planting net profit and its dynamic interaction.The research results show that:the growth rate of the total cost of cotton planting in Xinjiang is obvious,and the material and service costs and labor costs are the driving force for the increase of the total cost;the net profit of cotton planting is decreasing year by year,which is mainly caused by the excessive growth of the total cost;,the output has a significant positive impact on the net profit,while the input of production factors such as material and service costs has a negative impact on the net profit.Finally,it is proposed that "increasing prices and increasing production" is the most effective means to ensure the benefits of farmers’ cotton planting.Based on this,government guidance should be strengthened,land transfer forms should be enriched,and scientific and technological propaganda efforts should be strengthened.