城镇化发展对中国大陆近岸海域水环境的影响

Impact of Urbanization Development on Water Environment of Coastal Waters in the Chinese Mainland

为了探究城镇化发展对近岸海域水环境的影响,基于环境库兹涅茨曲线理论,以中国大陆沿海地区为例,分析近岸海域水环境的演变,并构建城镇化发展与近岸海域水质的多元面板回归模型,探究新型城镇化进程下影响近岸海域水质的主导因素。结果表明:中国大陆沿海各省份一、二类海水比例波动上升,劣四类海水比例下降,近岸海域水环境向好发展;优良水质比例主要受到人口城镇化率以及人均国内生产总值的影响,而劣等水质比例主要受土地城镇化率、非农产业比例以及人均国内生产总值的影响;城镇化的各个方面对中、高值区劣等水质比例的影响效应存在差异性,人口城镇化率对中值区呈现促进作用,在高值区呈现抑制作用,而土地城镇化率在中值区呈现抑制作用,在高值区呈现促进作用。

To explore impact of urbanization development on water environment of coastal waters,water environment evolution of coastal waters was analyzed based on environmental Kuznets curve theory and taking coastal areas in the Chinese Mainland as examples.A multiple panel regression model of urbanization development and coastal water quality from 2001 to 2018 was constructed,and dominant factors affecting coastal water quality under the process of new urbanization were explored.The results show that the ratio of class I and class II seawater in Chinese coastal provinces fluctuates,while that of inferior class IV seawater decreases.The water environment of coastal waters is getting better.The ratio of good water quality is mainly affected by urbanization rate of population and per capita gross domestic product,while the proportion of poor water quality is mainly affected by urbanization rate of land,proportion of non-agricultural industries,and per capita gross domestic product.Effects of various aspects of urbanization development on the proportion of inferior water quality in median and high value areas are different.The urbanization rate of population has a promoting effect on the median value areas and an inhibiting effect on the high value areas,while the urbanization rate of land has an inhibiting effect on the median area and a promoting effect on the high value area.