21世纪初期世界石油格局变化及启示

Changes and enlightenment of the world petroleum pattern in the early 21st century

20世纪后期的世界石油消费以北美和欧洲为重心。基于21世纪初期世界石油生产、消费和贸易的具体情况,分析各地区的发展特征、变化趋势和相互间的关系。21世纪初呈现向东亚和南亚地区发展更快而更加均衡的格局转变特点。以美国、沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和中国形成的“油气G4”将在世界石油发展格局中发挥重要的作用。随着《巴黎协定》开始进入实施阶段,21世纪初期也成为由以化石能源为主体的时代向以非化石能源为主体时代转变的过渡时期。与之相应,在世界石油市场上将由供需紧平衡向需求决定供应转变。在这个大转变的过程中,中国必须探寻出与国情相适应的具有自身特色的石油和能源发展道路。

The world oil consumption focused on North America and Europe in the late 20th century.Based on the specific situation of world oil production,consumption and trade in the early 21st century,this paper analyzes the development characteristics,change trends and mutual relations of various regions.At the beginning of the 21st century,the analysis results showed the characteristics of faster and more balanced development to East Asia and South Asia.The“oil and gas G4”formed by the United States,Saudi Arabia,Russia and China will play an important role in the world oil development pattern.With the beginning of the implementation of the Paris Agreement,the early 21st century has also become a transitional period from the era dominated by fossil energy to the era dominated by non fossil energy.Accordingly,in the world oil market,the tight balance between supply and demand will change to demand determines supply.In the process of this great transformation,China must explore its own characteristic oil and energy development path suitable for its national conditions.