俄罗斯、乌克兰和西方:再次奏响的“愚蠢进行曲”

The March of Folly Resumed:Russia, Ukraine and the West

俄罗斯对乌克兰的“特别军事行动”可能成为冷战后最重要的地缘政治事件,将重塑乌克兰、俄罗斯和西方的关系。俄罗斯发动军事行动有其内在逻辑,冷战后欧洲两种和平秩序模式之间的内在矛盾是战事爆发的深层结构性因素。两种规范性模式的竞争以及对该地区空间配置的不同地缘政治意图加强了这种矛盾。双方无法调和冷战后欧洲秩序的两种愿景导致互不信任并发展为彻底的敌意。冲突的内在逻辑正是源于冷战后的欧洲未能建立一个包容性和不可分割的安全秩序。西方无视俄罗斯提出的三个安全关切是冲突爆发的直接原因。西方和乌克兰在战前的一系列行为加剧了俄罗斯的忧虑,同时俄罗斯在乌克兰抵抗规模和俄罗斯军队作战能力、西方反应程度、俄民众战争意愿、自我伤害程度和后果的破坏性方面都作出了误判。俄罗斯发动这场有缘故却鲁莽的军事行动的前景难以预测,但这首“愚蠢进行曲”本可不必奏响。

Russia's“special military operation”against Ukraine may become the most important geopolitical event after the Cold War,which will reshapethe relationship between Ukraine,Russia and the West。Russia's military operation has its ownlogic.The internal contradiction between the two modes of peace order in Europe after the Cold War is the deep structural factor of the outbreak of war,which is strengthened by diffcrcnt gcopolitical intentions,The interal logic of conflict slems from the failure of Europe to establish an inclusive and indivisible security order post-Cold War.The West's disregard for the three security concerns raised by Russia is the direct cause of the conflict.A series of behaviors of the West and Ukraine before thewar exacerbated Russia's concerns.Russia has misjudged the scale of Ukrainian resistance,the combat capability of the Russian army,the degree of western response,thewill of the Russian people and the destructive consequences of the war.The prospect of Russia launchingthis militaryactionwith reasons but recklessness is difficult to predict,butthis“marchoffolly”could have been avoided.