“转阵营行为”与欧亚地区“灰色地带”的起源

“Camp Switching Behavior” and the Origin of the “Gray Zone” in Eurasia Regions

“灰色地带”是欧亚地区涌现的新地缘政治现象,针对“灰色地带”的起源问题,既有研究大都从单元层次出发,讨论“灰色地带”是在单元与体系、单元与单元互动的结果,很少将地区子系统作为要素考虑进去。实际上,作为体系子系统的欧亚地区存在着两个相互博弈的阵营,并对欧亚地区的地缘政治格局产生着结构性影响。为了揭示欧亚地区两个阵营在“灰色地带”生成中的作用,本研究通过新古典现实主义的理论范式和合作博弈论中的地形理论,创建了转换阵营模型,通过演化不同阵营与参与博弈各方之间的聚合行为,探讨了欧亚地区“灰色地带”的起源,并得出以下初步结论:在相对和平的状态下,欧亚国家对本区域内的不同阵营都有合作意愿。若在当前阵营产生挫折感(不能满足国家安全和发展的需要)时,欧亚国家会出现追随目标阵营的“转阵营行为”。若当前阵营的主导国具有一定的军事和经济实力,当前阵营和目标阵营会围绕有“转阵营行为”的欧亚国家发生激烈的且规避两大阵营发生直接战争的博弈,这导致了欧亚地区“灰色地带”的出现。在当前阵营中具有重要战略位置的国家,其“转阵营行为”往往会付出较大代价。

“Grey zone” is a new geopolitical phenomenon emerging in Eurasia. “Grey zone” is a new geopolitical phenomenon emerging in Eurasia. In order to reveal the role of the two camps in Eurasia in the formation of “gray zone”, this study establishes a “camp switching model” through the theoretical paradigm of Neoclassical Realism and the terrain theory in Cooperative Game Theory, and discusses the origin of “gray zone” in Eurasia. This paper draws the following preliminary conclusions: in a relatively peaceful state, Eurasian countries are willing to cooperate with different camps in the region. If there is a sense of frustration in the current camp(unable to meet the needs of national security and development), the Eurasian countries will follow the target camp. If the leading country of the current camp has certain military and economic strength, the current camp and the target camp will have a fierce game around the Eurasian countries with “ camp switching behavior” and avoid the direct war between the two camps,which leads to the emergence of the “gray area” in Eurasia. Countries with an important strategic position in the current camp often pay a high price for their “camp switching behavior”.