基于突变理论的城市轨道交通社会稳定性评价

Social Stability Evaluation of Urban Rail Transit Based on Catastrophe Theory

通过对南昌轨道交通项目3号线的考察,从项目前期准备、项目施工、项目运营三个维度作为设计城市轨道交通项目社会稳定性测度指标体系,并结合工程实践经验以及学者研究成果,借鉴HSSE管理思想选取项目可行性、法律健全性和公众认可程度等12个指标构建评价体系,以突变理论为指导,根据不同的突变类型归一化公式来测定评估城市轨道交通项目社会稳定性指数。结果表明,南昌轨道交通项目3号线的社会稳定性等级为四级,项目具有较好的社会稳定性,评价结果与实际情况相贴近。

Through the investigation of Nanchang Rail Transit Project Line 3,the social stability measurement index system of urban rail transit project is designed from the three dimensions of project preparation,project construction and project operation.Combined with engineering practical experience and scholars'research results,12 indicators such as project feasibility,legal integrity and public recognition are selected to construct the evaluation system based on HSSE management ideas.Under the guidance of catastrophe theory,the social stability index of urban rail transit project is determined and evaluated according to the normalization formula of different catastrophe types.The result shows that the grade of social stability of Nanchang Rail Transit Project Line 3 is level 4,the project has good social stability,and the evaluation result is close to the actual situation.