基于区县细颗粒物达标约束的四川盆地城市群大气环境容量模拟研究

Simulation of atmospheric environmental capacity of urban agglomeration in Sichuan Basin constrained by fine particulate matter compliance of districts and counties

以四川盆地城市群各区县细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))年均值达到《环境空气质量标准》(GB 3095—2012)二级标准为约束,利用WRF-SMOKE-MEGAN-CMAQ模式,采用模拟迭代法测算SO_(2)、NO_(x)、一次PM_(2.5)和挥发性有机物(VOCs)的大气环境容量,分析容量空间分布特征。结果表明:(1)SO_(2)主要来源于固定燃烧源和工艺过程源;NO_(x)主要来源于道路移动源、非道路移动源和工艺过程源;一次PM_(2.5)主要来源于工艺过程源、扬尘源和固定燃烧源;VOCs主要来源于道路移动源、工艺过程源和有机溶剂使用源。(2)SO_(2)、NO_(x)、一次PM_(2.5)和VOCs的大气环境容量分别为155.9、430.5、189.0、326.0 kt。(3)在当前末端治理减排潜力不断缩减的前提下,需实施产业、能源、交通和用地结构优化调整,才可实现更大的污染减排。

Constrained by the annual average value of fine particulate matter(PM_(2.5))in all districts and counties of the urban agglomeration in Sichuan Basin reached the Class Ⅱ standard of“Ambient air quality standards”(GB 3095-2012),the atmospheric environmental capacity of SO_(2),NO_(x),primary PM_(2.5) and volatile organic compounds(VOCs)in urban agglomeration of Sichuan Basin were calculated using an iterative algorithm based on the WRF-SMOKE-MEGAN-CMAQ model,and the spatial distribution of capacity were also characterized.The results indicated that:(1)SO_(2) emissions were mainly from stationary combustion sources and industrial processes.NO_(x) emissions were mainly from on-road mobile sources,off-road mobile sources and industrial processes.Primary PM_(2.5) emissions were mainly from industrial sources,fugitive dust and stationary combustion sources.VOCs emissions were mainly from on-road mobile sources,industrial processes and solvent utilization.(2)The atmospheric environmental capacity of SO_(2),NO_(x),primary PM_(2.5) and VOCs were 155.9,430.5,189.0 and 326.0 kt,respectively.(3)The industrial structure,energy sources structure,transportation structure and land use structure should be optimized in order to achieve more emission reduction,under the premise of the shrinking of potential reduction from end-of-pipe control.