基于LEAP模型的山西长期能源消耗及碳排放分析

Analysis of Shanxi’s Long-term Energy Consumption and Carbon Emission Based on LEAP Model

长期以来,煤炭对山西发展推动做出不可忽视的贡献,本文以山西省为例,利用LEAP模型构建四种不同情景,从基准年2018年至2060年为研究目标通过计算得到了不同方案下各时期的能源需求量以及碳排放量。计算结果表明,山西省要想在2030年前后碳达峰,必须加快提高能源效率,优化产业和能源结构、大力发展清洁能源是发展能源转型的战略,也是保证经济高质量发展的有效措施。

For a long time,coal has made a significant contribution to the development of Shanxi Province.Taking Shanxi Province as an example,this paper constructs four different scenarios by using leap model,taking 2018 to 2060 as the research goal,and calculates the energy demand and carbon emission in each period under different schemes.The calculation results show that if Shanxi province wants to reach the peak of carbon before and after 2030,it must speed up the improvement of energy efficiency,optimize the industrial and energy structure and vigorously develop clean energy.It is not only the strategy of developing energy transformation,but also an effective measure to ensure high-quality economic development.