增值税减税的经济效应分析——基于党的十八大以来财政货币政策协调的视角

Analysis of the economic effect of VAT reduction——From the perspective of fiscal and monetary policy coordination since the 18th CPC National Congress

在积极扩大内需提振经济的背景下,本文利用上市公司数据从经济政策协调的视角考察增值税减税对企业投融资的影响,为理解减税对宏观经济的作用提供微观基础。研究发现,减税政策不仅具有直接增加企业现金流的作用,还具有通过现金流修复企业资产负债表,强化货币政策信贷传导渠道的作用。具体而言,减税通过增加企业现金流,一定程度上缓解了内源融资约束,促进了企业投资;同时,减税改善了资产负债表,降低了逆向选择和道德风险,强化了广义货币政策信贷传导,有利于企业获得信贷以缓解外部融资约束,从而促进企业投资,进而促进增长。进一步分析表明,减税的经济效应在不同性质的企业中具有显著差异,在不同经济周期阶段也有所不同,实施时需考虑经济周期以及企业异质性。因此,政策实践中,应进一步落实完善减税政策,同时关注财政货币政策之间的协调搭配,充分发挥两者在刺激内需、提振经济上的叠加效应。

In the context of expanding domestic demand to improve the economy,this paper uses listed companies to examine the impact of the value-added tax reduction on firms’financing and investment from the perspective of economic policy coordination,and provides empirical evidence for understanding the effect of tax reduction on economy.It founds that tax reduction policies not only directly increase firm cash flow,but also improve firm balance sheets through cash flow and strengthen monetary policy credit transmission channels.Specifically,tax reduction increases corporate cash flow,at the same time,improves the balance sheet,reduces adverse selection and moral hazard,strengthens credit transmission of monetary policy,and facilitates firms’access to credit by easing external financing constraints,thereby promoting investment,which in turn promotes growth.Further analysis suggests that the economic effects of tax reduction are significantly different in different types of firms and different business cycle stages.Policy implementation needs to consider business cycle and enterprise heterogeneity.Therefore,it is necessary to further improve tax reduction policies,and pay attention to the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies,and play their roles to the superimposed effects in stimulating domestic demand and boosting the economy.