基于模糊集合理论的船舶碰撞危险度评估

Evaluation of Ship Collision Risk Index Based on Fuzzy Set Theory

针对船舶避碰决策过程中碰撞危险度计算方法准确性不高的问题,提出了一种基于模糊集合理论的船舶碰撞危险度评估方法.该方法选取最近会遇距离、最近会遇时间、两船间距、相对方位角和船速比5个因素组成船舶碰撞危险度的影响因素集,确定因素集中各参数的隶属度函数,利用层次分析法确定影响因素集中各参数的权值,由模糊集合理论构建碰撞危险度评估模型.对两船交叉相遇、对遇和追越3种不同的会遇情形进行仿真实验,结果表明,该评估模型准确度更高,且对危险目标船具有更强的辨识性.

Aiming at the problem that accuracy of collision risk index is low in the process of ship collision avoidance decision-making,a ship collision risk index method based on fuzzy set theory is proposed.In this method,five factors including distance of closest point of approaching,time of closest point of approaching,distance between two ships,relative bearing and ship speed ratio are selected to form the influencing factor set of ship collision risk index.Then membership functions of all parameter in the factor set are determined.The weights of all parameter in the factor set are determined by analytic hierarchy process,and the evaluation model of ship collision risk index is obtained by fuzzy set theory method.Through simulating experiments of three different encounter situations including crossing,head-on and overtaking between two ships,the results show that the evaluation model has high accuracy and better identification for dangerous target vehicles.