基于双重差分模型的高铁建设对山东区域发展的影响估计

The impact of high speed railway construction on the economic development of Shandong region based on a double-difference model

为研究高速铁路通车后对山东省内沿线各地级市发展的影响,选取山东省16个地级市为研究对象,以2011—2020年的年度面板数据为依据,采用多期双重差分模型,并通过Stata软件分析数据,研究2011—2020年高铁开通线路对山东省区域发展的影响效果。结果表明:高铁开通对山东省各地级市的本地生产总值(gross domestic product,GDP)、产业结构变动率、就业比例、城镇化率增长均有推动作用。对高铁开通对山东省区域经济发展的影响进行稳健性检验,检验结果依然显著。因此,可继续完善山东省区域发展战略和高铁网络建设,协调地区互助合作,优化产业结构,统筹规划城镇布局。

In order to study the influence of highspeed railway on the development of various prefecture-level cities along the line in Shandong Province,16 prefecture-level cities in Shandong Province are selected as the research object,the impact of the opening of highspeed railway lines on the regional development of Shandong Province from 2011 to 2020 is studied with a multi-period double differential model based on the annual panel data from 2011 to 2020,analyzed by Stata software.The results show that the opening of high speed railway has promoted the growth of GDP,industrial structure change rate,employment ratio and urbanization rate of various cities in Shandong Province.The robustness test of the effect of the high-speed opening on the regional economic development of Shandong Province is analyzed,and the test results are still remarkable.Therefore,we can continue to improve the regional development strategy and high speed railway network construction of Shandong Province,coordinate regional mutual assistance and cooperation,optimize the industrial structure,and overall plan the urban layout.