黄河流域水-能源-环境系统动态耦合协调发展研究

Research on the Dynamic Coupling Coordinative Degree Among Water-Energy-Environment System in the Yellow River Basin

为研究水、能源与环境子系统之间的耦合协调关系及动态演变特征,基于2010—2019年黄河流域9个省(区)的面板数据,建立水-能源-环境系统的耦合协调评价指标体系,通过熵权法、耦合协调模型定量分析水-能源-环境系统与子系统之间的耦合协调发展水平。结果表明:在研究期内,黄河流域水-能源-环境系统一直处于高水平耦合状态,耦合协调度在波动中上升,经历初级、中级协调两个阶段并有向良好协调类型演进的趋势,但三者之间的耦合协调关系仍存在较大上升空间;水资源子系统起主导作用,并且2016年之后的发展速度明显快于能源子系统和环境子系统。建议针对当地情况,通过跨部门合作提升滞后子系统的发展水平,实现资源子系统与环境子系统的持续协调发展。

In order to study the coupling coordination relationship and dynamic evolution characteristics among water,energy and environment systems,this paper established a coupling coordination evaluation index system of water-energy-environment system based on the panel data of nine provinces(regions)in the Yellow River Basin from 2010 to 2019,and quantitatively analyzed the coupling coordination development level of the whole system and subsystems by entropy weight method and coupling coordination model.The results show that the water-energy-environment system has been in a high-level coupling state during the study period.The coupling coordination degree rises in fluctuation,goes through two stages of primary and intermediate coordination,and tends to evolve to a good coordination type,but there is still a large gap for the coupling coordination relationship among the three systems.Water resources system plays a leading role in comparison with other systems,and its development speed is obviously better than that of energy and environmental systems after 2016.It suggested to improve the development level of lagging system through cross sectoral cooperation according to the local situation,so as to realize the sustainable and coordinated development of resources system and environment system.