中国林业绿色全要素生产率的时空演变分析

Spatial-Temporal Evolution of Green Total Factor Productivity of Forestry in China

采用超效率SBM模型测算我国2004—2019年30个省(市、自治区)林业绿色全要素生产率,在此基础上进行收敛性分析、核密度函数估计及空间自相关分析,明确林业绿色全要素生产率区域差异时空演变。进一步采用空间马尔可夫链对林业绿色全要素生产率状态转移进行短期分析及长期预测,探究其短期和长期状态演变规律。结果表明:林业绿色全要素生产率呈波动提高趋势,效率值依经济发展水平呈现两极化分布;林业绿色全要素生产率状态转移存在“俱乐部效应”,在空间效应影响下,“俱乐部效应”增强。同时林业绿色全要素生产率转移对初始状态具有依赖性,长期内转移存在收敛性使得其在空间内呈现集聚分布,流动性较弱。而相邻区域状态将对区域状态转移具有正向和负向溢出影响。据此,提出协同区域经济发展,加强林业政策支持,推动权利适度下放,促进区域交流等有利于林业发展的参考建议。

The paper used the super-efficiency SBM model to calculate the green total factor productivity of forestry in 30 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)in China from 2004 to 2019.On this basis,convergence analysis,kernel density function estimation and spatial autocorrelation analysis were conducted.The spatial-temporal evolution of regional differences in green total factor productivity of forestry was clarified.And the short term analysis and long-term prediction of the state transition were carried out by spatial Markov chain.The research had led to the following conclusions:the green total factor productivity of forestry showed a trend of fluctuation,and the efficiency value presented a polarization distribution corresponding to economic development.There was a“club effect”in the state transfer of green total factor productivity of forestry,which was enhanced under the influence of spatial effect.Meanwhile,the transfer of green total factor productivity of forestry was dependent on the initial state,and the convergence of the transfer in the long term was characterized by show agglomeration distribution in space and weak liquidity.The neighboring region states had positive and negative spillover effects on the region state transition.On this basis,some suggestions were put forward,such as coordinating regional economic development,strengthening forestry policy support,promoting appropriate decentralization of power and promoting regional communication.