数字金融与碳排放:基于微观数据和机器学习模型的研究

Digital finance and carbon emissions: an empirical test based on micro data and machine learning model

数字金融发展新阶段,中国同时正在进行碳达峰、碳中和的深刻变革。基于2000—2019年城市面板、工业企业等数据库匹配的多维微观数据样本,首先运用传统计量模型,结合R语言地理坐标系统和爬虫等前沿技术构建相应指标,从多个角度实证研究数字金融如何影响碳排放。然后,运用Python机器学习模型开展数字金融对碳排放的真实非线性效应研究。实证结果显示:①数字金融对地区总体碳排放量具有显著降低作用,而且通过了工具变量法等稳健性检验。②机制检验首次验证发现,数字金融通过支持数字科技产业化和传统产业数字化这两大机制影响碳排放。一方面,数字金融发展的普惠性主要体现在通过助力数字科技的产业化和优化产业结构减少地区总体碳排放。另一方面,对传统产业的数字化赋能并不在于直接的金融普惠性逻辑,而是通过深化市场整合、强化市场竞争,促进了企业的优胜劣汰,提升企业的创新投入和创新能力,从而提高能源利用和碳减排效率,降低地区总体碳排放。③机器学习模型分析首次发现,数字金融对碳排放影响的重要性与传统因素相当,此外,还揭示了其对碳排放影响的非线性趋势。上述研究有助于解释和统合数字金融对实体经济“创造性”和“破坏性”的争议,即数字金融发展对碳排放的减少起到重要作用,但是其影响机制较为间接,而且正面作用逐渐收敛和转向。基于此,应注重引导传统金融机构数字化转型和深耕服务实体经济,推进碳金融的数字化创新,强化数字金融反垄断监管,从而充分抓住新一代数字科技机遇,引导数字金融支持数字产业化和产业数字化,助力实现“双碳”目标。

In the new stage of the development of digital finance,China is also undergoing a profound transformation of peaking its carbon emissions and achieving carbon neutrality.Based on micro data samples matched by the city panel and industrial enterprise databases in 2000-2017,this study used the traditional econometrics model and built corresponding indexes with techniques such as the R language geographic coordinate system and web-crawlers to empirically study how digital finance affected carbon emissions from multiple angles.Then,the real non-linear effect of digital finance on carbon emissions was studied with a machine learning model using Python.The results showed that:①Digital finance had a significant reduction effect on regional overall carbon emissions and passed robustness tests such as the instrumental variable method.②The mechanism test verified for the first time that digital finance influenced carbon emissions through two mechanisms:digital technology industrialization and digital empowerment of traditional industries.On the one hand,the inclusiveness of digital finance development was mainly reflected in reducing the overall regional carbon emissions by facilitating the industrialization of digital technology and optimizing the industrial structure.On the other hand,the digital empowerment of traditional industries did not conform to the direct logic of financial inclusion,but through deepening market integration and strengthening market competition,it promoted the survival of the fittest of enterprises,improved enterprise innovation input and innovation ability,thus improving energy utilization and carbon emission reduction efficiency and reducing the overall regional carbon emissions.③The machine learning model analysis showed for the first time that the importance of digital finance on carbon emissions was similar to that of traditional factors.In addition,digital finance had a nonlinear effect on carbon emissions.The above research helps explain the‘creativity’and‘destruction’contradiction of digital finance to the real economy,showing that the development of digital finance plays an important role in the reduction of carbon emissions,but its influence mechanism is indirect,and the positive effects gradually converge and turn.Based on this,we should pay attention to guiding the digital transformation of traditional financial institutions;vigorously promoting services for the real economy;promoting the digital innovation of carbon finance;and strengthening the anti-monopoly supervision of digital finance,so as to fully seize the opportunities of the new generation of digital science and technology,guide digital finance to support digital industrialization and industrial digitalization,and help realize the dual carbon goals.